#美联储恢复降息进程# The Fed implemented its first interest rate drop in nine months at midnight on September 18, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%. The dot plot indicates a potential further drop of 50 basis points within the year, which could bring the year-end interest rate level to a range of 3.50%-3.75%. Fed Chairman Powell stated that this is a risk management style rate cut strategy, emphasizing that aggressive actions will not be taken, while also noting that high inflation has eased since April of this year. Following this announcement, the market responded with a strengthening dollar, pressure on gold prices, and a pullback in growth stocks. Financial institutions have differing views on this, with most domestic securities firms suggesting that the easing policy is constrained, while international institutions have varying opinions on the sustainability of the rate cut cycle.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% for the fifth consecutive time at its monetary policy meeting held on September 19, with a voting result of 7 to 2 in favor of the decision, where two committee members supported raising the interest rate. The meeting also announced a plan to reduce its ETF holdings by 330 billion yen annually. Data shows that Japan's core inflation rate in August was 2.7%, the lowest in nearly ten months. The market interpreted this policy stance as "hawkish with stability," and after the announcement, the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced fluctuations, while the Nikkei 225 index declined. Analysts have significantly differing opinions, with some suggesting that the Bank of Japan's attitude is cautious, while others believe the outcome leans toward a hawkish stance, predicting a possible rate hike in October; there are also views that the rate hike could be delayed until 2026.