#美联储降息预期升温# The interest rate cut at 2 AM on Thursday, with a 25 basis point cut, is basically confirmed. The key is to look at Powell's subsequent remarks, which will provide some expectations on whether there will be another cut this year or two.

This means that the Federal Reserve is about to start a new round of interest rate cuts. Looking back at previous rate cuts, the results have been mixed. Asset prices are often too high just before a rate cut, which tends to adversely affect the market after the cut. Economic changes are the most important indicators of how assets will change after a rate cut. For example, the collapses in 2001 and 2007 were caused by the tech bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis, respectively, and prices continued to drop even after the rate cuts. In contrast, the rate cut in 1995 coincided with a improving economy. In 2020, the rate cut during the pandemic led to a brief economic bottom, but the economy has been recovering ever since, and markets usually surge after rate cuts.