Orange Evening Interpretation 9.11

It seems that the U.S. Labor Department has indeed been controlled by Trump. The PPI data released last night was significantly lower than expected, with the core PPI year-on-year recording at 2.6%, expected at 3.3%, and the previous value at 3.1%. Compared to CPI, which reflects immediate inflation, PPI data reflects price signals. So, with this data being so much lower than expected, it really gives the impression that it was made to cater to Trump.

Trump also did not hold back; as soon as the data came out, he immediately criticized Powell three times, demanding that Powell lower interest rates immediately. Regardless of how one looks at it, this data greatly stimulated expectations for rate cuts. CME now expects a 50 basis point rate cut in September, stabilizing at 8%. If tonight's CPI data also comes in lower than expected, then the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September will be very high.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve and Trump have now entered a shadow war regarding the September FOMC meeting. A few days ago, the court ruled that Federal Reserve Governor Cook is allowed to vote at the September FOMC, and last night Trump also filed an appeal to the court. The White House immediately issued a statement saying that Trump's removal of Cook is legal, and that the court's ruling is not the final decision. It seems that Trump is doing everything possible to prevent Cook from returning. Meanwhile, the appointment process for Miran is also progressing rapidly. Overall, it is clear that Trump is very determined to control the Federal Reserve. If the board is filled with Trump's people, Powell will truly be of no use, saving Trump from weekly criticisms. Of course, while lower interest rates may be enjoyable, the independence of the Federal Reserve will be lost. The politicization of the Federal Reserve is something that will happen sooner or later; it's just that Trump has accelerated the process. In the future, the world will definitely be long BTC and short USD.

Last night, both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 reached new highs, and even Oracle, a trillion-dollar company, saw its stock price soar by 40%, which is equivalent to gaining an Ethereum overnight. All AI-related stocks in the U.S. took off, but this surge did not spread to the AI sector in the cryptocurrency market; the two remain independent markets. Last night, the whole internet was buzzing about Charlie Kirk's shooting incident, and gun stocks like Smith & Wesson rose significantly. Ironically, Charlie opposed strict gun control, yet he fell victim to the very cause he supported, which could be seen as getting what he asked for. In the crypto meme space, $charlie also entered a chaotic phase, and I noticed there are three or four Charlies with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding 50 million, but currently, only two have a market cap over 1 million, and each has a market cap of just 1-2 million. They haven't really taken off yet, which is completely different from the peanut era; the on-chain activity is now too dispersed. Additionally, Elon donated 1 million for Ukrainian refugees, and the derivative memes $iryna and $Polyfacts, certified by Polymarket, both peaked yesterday but have since cooled down. Now, attention on-chain shifts very quickly, and the lifecycle is shorter; when people are in the meme game, they usually hold their tokens for no more than 12 hours, or they might wake up to a completely different topic.

The competition for the issuance rights of the $hype stablecoin usdh has entered a white-hot phase, with more than 10 participants currently in the race, mostly showing great sincerity, even to the point of fawning over $hype. It is the most basic thing to use the stablecoin revenue to buy back $hype. Currently, the biggest advantage lies with the native markets initiated by the microstrategy CEO of hype, where out of a total of 19 nodes, 7 have chosen to vote for him, indicating that the hype community is quite rational. Instead of waiting for future revenue buybacks, it would be better to directly give microstrategy the funds to buy $hype right now; the second in the voting ranking is paxos, which is the issuer of busd. Back in the day, busd was also thriving, second only to usdt/USDC, and this time they have teamed up with paypal. I have previously mentioned that the paypal gang is very strong in the cryptocurrency market, with Peter Thiel being the mastermind behind it, and even resources like Musk and Vance are part of their network. Just look at how strong the $xpl trend was when it was listed recently, and last night's new high of $mnt is also a paypal-related project. Choosing paxos could give hype a solid backing, and now paxos has received 3 votes. Next is $ena, which received two votes; ena is also directly using 95% of its revenue to buy back hype, and its proposal is very detailed, mentioning a community inside joke of $800/point. They are not only spending money but also putting in effort. Other contenders like sky, frax, agora, openeden, etc., still have 0 votes, so the chances may not be great anymore. The hype incident really shows us that in the cryptocurrency market, being strong is the hard truth; everyone is eager to give you money to help you work, just like with Nvidia, where Musk and Oracle CEO Ellison invited Jensen Huang to dinner, with the theme being just to sell a few more graphics cards to the brothers.

In terms of altcoins, the overall market is still quite stable, and the altcoins are starting to stir, especially the several sectors I've been mentioning. Staking $eigen, $ethfi, and $pendle, all of which are at the top of the gainers list. The pump has heated up again in recent days alongside the blockchain, with stable income exceeding the hype, yet its market cap is only one-tenth. In fact, the subsequent potential of the pump is quite large, and it is genuinely buying back; buying back is not effective if done impulsively once or twice, but with long-term persistence, the coin price will quickly return to a positive spiral. The $avax has launched a treasury plan allowing for $1 billion, leading to a long-awaited price increase; the rwa sector continues to be strong, with $kta recently rising by over 30%. Then there's the new coin $linea, which has basically achieved a grand slam, but the coin price is still following the contract trends from a few days ago, and in my view, it will fall below market expectations. The gaming sector has also risen with $ygg, $robin, $pixel, and $gun all showing strong trends. In fact, the altcoins might only be one new all-time high away from the altcoin season; I have a feeling that a big surge is coming in Q4.