Wu discusses this week's macro indicators and analysis: The Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Powell's speech

Compiled by: GaryMa Wu said Blockchain

Abstract Wu discusses this week’s macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates, the initial value of the US Q1 GDP was -0.3%, and US non-farm employment was higher than expected. This week will see the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Powell’s press conference, with the market largely expecting that interest rates will remain unchanged at this meeting.

Last Week Review

In April, the ADP employment number in the United States increased by 62,000, the slowest growth rate in nearly nine months, falling short of the expected 115,000, and down from the previous value of 155,000.

In April, the non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 177,000, with an expectation of 138,000.

The unemployment rate in the United States for April is 4.2%, unchanged from the expected and previous value of 4.2%.

The annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the first quarter was -0.3%, the lowest level since the second quarter of 2022.

The U.S. core PCE price index for March increased by 2.6% year-on-year, expected at 2.6%, previous value at 2.8%;

China’s official manufacturing PMI for April is 49, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity.

China’s April Caixin Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest value of the index in the past three months. However, the manufacturing sentiment has still remained at the threshold between expansion and contraction for the seventh consecutive month.

The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates, lowers GDP and inflation forecasts, and the cooling of interest rate hike expectations drives the yen lower.

Key Events & Indicators This Week May 06

China’s April Caixin Services PMI (09:45)

May 08

The Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision (02:00)

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference (02:30)

The Bank of England announced the interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report (19:00)

May 09

China’s M2 Money Supply Year-on-Year in April