📍 Treasury Keeps TGA at $850B in Q4
The U.S. Treasury has signaled that it will maintain the TGA (General Account) around $850B throughout Q4. This is not just a number — it reflects an intent to restrict liquidity from entering the market.
From a macro perspective:
Treasury issuance → TGA accumulation → real liquidity absorption
Combined with QT, this strengthens overall tightening pressure
Even if short-term rallies occur, the core reality remains liquidity constraints
Thus, rather than expecting “more liquidity injections,” the real picture is continued liquidity absorption.
👉 My bias rem

🔥 “Fake Rally — The Final Stage of the Bubble” 🔥
The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has already surpassed its $850B target, reaching $857.7B. With the goal exceeded, there is now a high probability of massive liquidity injections at the turn of the month.
This could trigger a short-term liquidity explosion, igniting what may become the final bubble stage of the current cycle.
Yet from a technical perspective, caution is warranted.
The latest price rise occurred despite key support levels breaking — a hallmark of a fake rally rather than genuine strength.
On lower timeframes (e.g., 30-mi

🔹 Market Note (Sep 11 CPI Outlook)
U.S. inflation on Sep 11 is expected to come in high, likely triggering a market decline.
Report reflects August CPI → a lagging structure, making it somewhat predictable in advance.
Jobs have fallen for 4 consecutive months while inflation rebounds → raising stagflation concerns.
Powell stresses “inflation below 2%,” but with CPI at 2.7%, a rate cut could be seen as politically motivated.
Trump’s tariffs add upward pressure on prices → risk of being judged a policy failure.
Risk of a sharp downturn increases from late Q3 into early Q4.
💡 Ultimately, the ma

🔹 Market Note
The real downturn hasn’t even begun yet. Don’t be shaken by minor waves. I see a 95% probability of reaching the second target zone at 100K–102K.
https://gate.com/post?post_id=13518649&tim=Cw4CAAIaWwFwUQoAHQlHDF9e&ref=VLISVFBACA&ref_type=105

🔹 “Unemployment Slowdown + September Corporate Tax: Liquidity Tightening Begins”
1. Employment & Economy
U.S. unemployment rate (expected 4.3%) signals a continued slowdown.
Suggests the economy is gradually losing momentum.
2. Market Status
Nasdaq and key stocks are still hitting new highs.
The focus now shifts from growth to whether a slowdown → recession develops.
3. Technical View
If recession fears materialize, Bitcoin could fall toward the 93–95K.
Personally, I see a higher likelihood of further downside.
4. Debate in the Market
The core question: “Rate cuts vs. recession?”
Rate cuts se

🔹 Trading Mindset Notes
1. Losses are part of the game; fear is optional.
2. Risk what you can afford, not what you fear to lose.
3. Trade with discipline, detach from emotion.
4. Patience and consistency beat impulse and emotion.

🔹 Market Outlook
Bitcoin is expected to reach the second target zone soon — as early as this week, or by next week at the latest. Wishing you the best of luck on this move.
https://www.gate.com/post/status/13384101?ref=VLISVFBACA&ref_type=105

🔹 Today's Checkpoint
This week’s 20-day moving average on the weekly chart will close at 9 AM.
Last week, the weekly open level was around $107.8K, but this week it has shifted higher to $108.1K–$108.2K.
As time passes, the level that must hold as support is gradually rising, which adds weight to the current trend.
Last week’s Bitcoin low was $107.2K, a level I’m keeping in mind as a reference point.

🔹 Bitcoin Downtrend Trigger: Key Targets Ahead
I believe Bitcoin has entered a bearish inflection point.
1st target: 104K–106K
2nd target: 100K–102K
3rd target: 93K–97K
My plan is to place a small hedge long position near the 2nd target zone, then fully switch to longs around the 3rd target range.

Watching the 24H chart — my view remains unchanged, still holding. 1 day left.

🔹 Bitcoin Outlook: Downside Targets After Breaking 110K
Bitcoin has broken below the 110K level, and I see this as a sign of accelerating downside momentum.
My first target area is around 104K–106K, and the second, deeper level is 93K–97K, guided by the 3-day chart’s 112-day moving average.
Even if a short-term rebound takes place, I expect the price will eventually test those levels, so I’m watching closely for possible short setups.

🔹 Bitcoin Outlook: Potential Downside After Short-Term Bounce
Even if a short-term rebound occurs, I now see a higher likelihood of Bitcoin breaking below 110K.
The current price is around 113K, but based on the 3-day chart’s 112-day moving average, I expect the market could correct toward the 93K–97K level.
At this stage, I’m closely watching for potential short entry points.

🔹 Market Strategy: Favorable Risk-Reward Zone, Mechanical Trading Emphasized
I see the current range as a favorable risk-reward zone, a level worth holding through. For me, it’s less about prediction and more about discipline—following the market’s flow, setting emotions aside, and executing trades mechanically.

🔹 Bitcoin at a Strategic Crossroad: 112K–113K Range
The 112K–113K zone is viewed as a favorable risk-reward entry for longs. While the long strategy remains valid, a sharp acceleration to the downside could warrant a decisive shift in positioning.

🔹 Bitcoin Holds Key Short-Term Support
If the 112K level is defended over the next 2–3 days, the upside potential remains strong.

🔹 Crypto Market Forms Final Support Level
If this support holds, the broader market could see another wave of upward momentum.