AMP首席经济学家Shane Oliver表示,由于估值过高,以及特朗普在贸易和政府支出方面采取的更为极端的政策,今年美国股市很有可能出现15%以上的回调。2016年Oliver曾表示担心特朗普会让“疯子”加入他的团队。总的来说,特朗普没有这样做,这导致了团队人员不断的变动;此前,有部分“理智的人”在团队里阻止更极端的政策,但这一次,随着特朗普任命了他的忠实支持者,团队里的“智者”似乎没有那么多了。从理性主义经济学的角度来看,特朗普的政纲中有很多内容是有道理的,比如减税、缩小政府规模和放松管制,但目前看来,特朗普采取了许多极端的政策措施,似乎正在使情况失控。
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