分析：本轮周期出现“反向山寨季”特征，结构性走弱且分化加剧

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2026-02-06 12:34:13

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Odaily星球日报讯分析师 Ali 在 X 平台发布长文分析指出，本轮周期或已出现不同于传统模式的“反向山寨季”，历史上山寨季通常表现为比特币上涨后资金轮动流入山寨币并推动整体普涨，但当前周期更多呈现为山寨币结构性走弱、分化加剧的特征。复盘周期走势显示，比特币自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 事件后约 1.5 万美元附近见底，随后开启牛市行情，并在 2025 年 10 月附近触及约 12.6 万美元高位。但在此期间，市场未出现典型的广泛山寨普涨阶段。多数山寨币出现长期趋势通道跌破、关键支撑失守及下行波动扩大等特征，该环境下市场机会更多集中在结构性分化与双向交易，而非单边上涨行情。从市场结构来看，当前更像是山寨资产选择性去杠杆与估值回归阶段，而非传统意义上的全面山寨牛市，短期内市场仍可能延续分化格局，结构性下行风险尚未完全释放。

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