CoinDesk 高級分析師 James Van Straten 指出，比特幣歷經史上最長礦工投降潮，隨著算力絲帶（Hash Ribbon）即將迎來黃金交叉，多項指標顯示市場已進入深層價值區，最黑暗的跌勢或許已經過去。
（前情提要：Michael Saylor：比特幣回檔 45% 如同 Apple 曾走過的「絕望之谷」）
（背景補充：女股神 Cathie Wood：比特幣「毫無疑問」優於黃金，在現代金融體系中更具結構性優勢）
比特幣（BTC）在經歷了長達三個月的震盪回落後，市場正迎來關鍵的轉折訊號。根據 CoinDesk 高級分析師 James Van Straten 援引鏈上數據監測機構 Glassnode 的最新資料指出，比特幣「算力絲帶」（Hash Ribbon）指標正趨於復甦，這顯示自去年 11 月以來、史上持續時間最長的「礦工投降期」可能即將終結。歷史數據表明，這類訊號的出現往往預示著市場底部的形成。
圖源：James Van Straten
什麼是「礦工投降」？為何與價格觸底有關？
在加密貨幣市場中，「礦工投降」是指挖礦收入不足以支撐電力及營運成本時，效率低下的礦工被迫關閉機台並拋售手中比特幣儲備以維持生計的現象。這種集體賣壓通常會導致全網算力（Hash Rate）暫時下降。
「算力絲帶」指標透過追蹤算力的 30 日與 60 日移動平均線（MA）來判斷市場壓力。當 30 日 MA 重新由下往上穿越 60 日 MA 時，即代表礦工開始重新上線，網路壓力緩解。過去十年中，這種交叉信號曾多次精準捕捉到市場的重要底部，包括 2018 年底與 2022 年底的低點。
數據解析：價格已跌破「平均生產成本」
除了算力指標外，另一項支持「底部論」的證據是比特幣的生產成本。James Van Straten 再次援引 checkonchain 數據指出，比特幣目前的交易價格（約 65,000 至 66,000 美元）已低於估計的平均生產成本 66,000 美元。
當比特幣價格跌破生產成本時，市場通常被視為進入「深層價值區」。這種現象極為罕見，上一次發生是在 2022 年 11 月，當時比特幣價格一度觸及 15,500 美元的週期低點。目前價格跌破成本線，將進一步逼出市場最後的弱勢持股者，完成籌碼換手。
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