Concerns over future breakthroughs in quantum computing are beginning to influence how markets value Bitcoin relative to gold, according to analyst Willy Woo. While quantum computers capable of breaking modern encryption are not considered imminent, the long-term possibility is introducing a layer of uncertainty into Bitcoin’s pricing model.

Woo argues that Bitcoin’s 12-year trend of outperformance versus gold has broken, marking what he describes as a structural shift. In his view, the change coincides with rising awareness of quantum computing risks. Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography, and in theory, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could derive private keys from exposed public keys, potentially compromising certain addresses. Although such capabilities remain speculative and years away, markets may already be factoring in the risk.

A key concern involves an estimated 4 million “lost” BTC believed to be inaccessible due to missing private keys. If quantum technology were to make those coins retrievable, they could re-enter circulation, effectively increasing supply. Woo notes that corporations following the playbook popularized by MicroStrategy in 2020, along with spot Bitcoin ETFs, have accumulated roughly 2.8 million BTC in recent years. The hypothetical return of 4 million lost coins would exceed that figure, representing a supply shock larger than years of institutional accumulation.

Woo estimates that so-called “Q-Day” — the point at which quantum computers could realistically threaten Bitcoin’s cryptography — may be five to fifteen years away. Until that risk is fully mitigated, he believes Bitcoin may trade with a discount relative to gold as investors price in uncertainty. He adds that while Bitcoin would likely adopt quantum-resistant cryptographic upgrades before any credible attack, such changes would not automatically resolve the status of potentially recoverable lost coins.

Market Signals and Institutional Shifts

Other analysts see similar patterns. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, pointed to a surge in Google search interest for “Quantum Computing Bitcoin” around the time Bitcoin’s price peaked, suggesting that rising awareness of the risk may have coincided with market derisking.

Institutional portfolio adjustments also reflect these concerns. Christopher Wood of Jefferies reportedly reduced a 10% Bitcoin allocation in favor of gold and mining stocks, citing quantum-related risks. The move underscores that some professional investors view the issue not as a distant theoretical threat, but as a factor worth incorporating into long-term asset allocation decisions.

While no immediate quantum threat exists, the debate highlights how forward-looking risks can influence relative valuations. In this context, quantum computing has emerged as a long-term variable shaping how Bitcoin is priced, particularly when compared with traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

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