牛津经济研究院:预计日央行将加息时间从 6 月推迟至 7 月

Gate News 消息,3 月 19 日,牛津经济研究院日本经济主管 Shigeto Nagai 表示,考虑到日本经济可能陷入滞胀,目前预计日本央行将把下次加息时间从 6 月推迟至 7 月。此后,预计央行将在 2027 年第一季度和第三季度继续逐步加息。短期内,能源成本上升将重新加速供应侧推动的通胀,核心 CPI 预计到 2027 年第二季度才能重回 2%,而非此前预期的 2026 年第四季度。尽管春季薪资谈判结果预计强劲,但更高的通胀将限制实际收入增长。因此,该机构将 2026 年日本实际 GDP 增长预测下调 0.4 个百分点至 0.3%。牛津经济研究院认为,尽管担心通胀预期压力和日元疲软,日本央行对加息可能变得更加谨慎,转而优先考虑加息对企业利润和实际家庭收入的影响。

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