美伊冲突持续风险升至70%,专家警告比特币或面临短期崩盘

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3月12日消息,美伊战争局势持续恶化,预测显示冲突可能持续至5月,风险飙升至70%。随着中东地区军事部署增加和缓和努力失败,油价突破每桶95美元,全球市场面临地缘政治紧张冲击,比特币和其他加密资产短期承压。

根据Polymarket数据,霍尔木兹海峡航运在4月底前恢复正常的概率仅为47%。特朗普政府评估称,战争第一周损失高达113亿美元。美国政治学家John Mearsheimer表示,美国在伊朗战争中已处于不利局面,缺乏明确退出策略,伊朗可能将战争拖入长期消耗战,同时利用袭击海湾基础设施施加经济压力。

投资者避险情绪上升,美元指数(DXY)冲高至99.5,同时推动比特币短期波动。Kevin Steuer在接受《The David Lin Report》采访时指出,油价突破每桶100美元、VIX指数升至30以上以及中东冲突升级,均为比特币潜在崩盘的信号。他警告称,比特币是否触底取决于美伊局势的解决,如果冲突升级,交易员可能转向黄金等传统避险资产。

资深交易员Peter Brandt认为,油价在重新测试支撑位后可能继续上行,并对比特币短期前景保持谨慎。他表示,当前市场仍被看涨情绪主导,但价格波动和交易量下降显示投资者兴趣减弱。比特币目前在68,000美元至71,000美元之间震荡,现价约为69,822美元,24小时交易量下降约10%,显示短期市场观望情绪明显。

分析人士认为,若美伊冲突持续,油价和风险资产波动将加剧,加密货币投资者需关注地缘政治风险,同时评估比特币潜在回调压力及避险资产配置策略。

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