1月20日消息，在美国总统特朗普最新关税言论引发市场避险情绪后，比特币价格一度跌破9.1万美元。来自链上衍生品市场的最新数据显示，交易员对未来几个月比特币走势的预期明显转弱，期权市场已开始定价更深度的下行风险。
去中心化衍生品协议 Derive.xyz 的数据指出，交易员认为比特币在2026年6月底前跌破8万美元的概率高达30%。该平台支持链上期权、永续合约及结构化产品，被视为观察市场情绪的重要窗口。Derive.xyz 研究主管 Shawn Dawson 博士表示，期权结构已明显向下倾斜，同期比特币上涨至12万美元以上的概率仅约19%。
期权本质上是一种价格押注工具，允许投资者通过支付期权费，对未来价格区间进行风险对冲或方向性交易。当前，看跌期权需求显著上升，反映出市场对比特币短中期走势的担忧情绪正在累积。这种由交易者“众包”形成的概率判断，也被视为一种前瞻性风险指标。
若比特币真的跌破8万美元，将创下自2025年4月以来的新低。当时，特朗普对多国商品加征关税，引发全球金融市场剧烈波动，比特币曾短暂下探至7.5万美元附近。近期类似的宏观不确定性再次浮现。特朗普周末威胁对10个欧洲国家的进口商品加征10%关税，原因与格陵兰岛相关的政治分歧有关，相关言论迅速压制了风险资产表现。
Dawson 指出，美欧之间不断升温的地缘政治紧张局势，正在提高市场重新进入高波动周期的可能性，而这部分风险尚未完全反映在现货价格中。从期权结构看，偏斜度仍处于负值区间，表明短期内下行保护需求更为迫切。
此外，在 Derive 以及其他衍生品市场中，行权价集中在7.5万美元至8万美元区间的看跌期权未平仓合约数量明显增加，显示部分资金已开始为比特币回落至7万美元中段进行提前布局。对于关注比特币价格预测、比特币期权数据以及宏观风险对加密市场影响的投资者而言，当前衍生品信号值得高度警惕。
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