BlockBeats 消息，1 月 14 日，加密市场做市商 Wintermute 在其数字资产场外交易市场回顾中分析：2025 年比特币的传统四年周期表现疲软，山寨币周期几乎消失，这不是短暂调整，而是结构性变化。因此 2026 年加密市场想要真正强势反弹，高度依赖以下三个关键结果，需要其中至少一个发生：
ETF 和加密财库（DAT）公司将投资范围扩大到比特币和以太坊之外。目前美国现货 BTC/ETH ETF 将流动性高度集中在少数大市值代币上，导致市场宽度变窄、表现严重分化。只有当更多币种被机构通过 ETF 或企业金库纳入，才有可能恢复更广泛的市场参与和流动性。
BTC、ETH 与 BNB、SOL 等主要资产再次出现强劲表现，并产生广泛财富效应。2025 年传统「BTC 上涨随后资金流向山寨」的循环基本断裂，山寨币平均上涨周期仅约 20 天（前一年约 60 天），大部分代币受解锁抛压影响持续走低。唯有头部资产再次大涨，资金才可能重新向下溢出，激活山寨行情。
散户注意力重回加密市场。目前散户还在积极参与市场，但资金主要在定投标普 500、AI、机器人、量子计算等高增长主题。2022-2023 年的惨痛记忆（暴跌、破产、强平）叠加 2025 年加密表现落后于传统股市，让很多人对加密的「暴富」吸引力大幅下降。只有散户大规模回归，市场才会重新获得狂热动能。
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