观点:「委内瑞拉600亿美元比特币持仓」说法缺乏证据支撑

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BlockBeats 消息,1 月 8 日,近期市场传言称,委内瑞拉政府可能秘密持有价值高达 600 亿美元的比特币。但在委内瑞拉生活并长期从事比特币挖矿的 Ledn 联创 Mauricio Di Bartolomeo 表示,这一说法更多源于猜测与二手信息,缺乏可信的链上证据。相关传言的三大来源:

1)2018 年委内瑞拉一次大规模黄金出售并兑换为比特币;
2)部分石油收入以比特币或加密货币结算;
3)政府没收或盗取矿机进行挖矿。

Mauricio 承认,委内瑞拉确实曾在部分石油交易中收取加密货币,也确实存在政府没收矿机的情况,但他强调:没有任何可信证据表明 2018 年约 27 亿美元的黄金出售被转换成比特币。该交易的关键人物、现任工业与国家生产部长 Alex Saab 曾在 2020–2023 年间被美国拘押,并于 2023 年底在换囚协议中被释放。

若其真如传言所称控制着价值 100–200 亿美元的 BTC,将明显与当时委内瑞拉央行披露的约 99 亿美元官方储备规模不符,且从未有任何链上地址被可靠归属至 Saab 或委内瑞拉国家。

此外,即便委内瑞拉政权曾获得加密货币收入,极端腐败的体制也几乎不可能让这些资金进入国家金库。Mauricio 以 2023 年曝光的 SUNACRIP(国家加密监管机构)腐败丑闻为例,指出 2020–2023 年间,官员通过非法石油交易侵吞约 176 亿美元,加密资产收益极可能同样被个人私吞。

至于「利用没收矿机大规模挖矿」的说法,Mauricio 同样持否定态度。他指出,委内瑞拉长期存在 严重电力短缺、基础设施老化、技术人员大量流失等问题,国家连石油公司 PDVSA 这样的核心资产都难以有效运营,更不具备稳定运行大规模比特币矿场的条件。「委内瑞拉确实存在比特币,但它们不在政权手中。」

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