Ethereum Price Prediction: Whale Accumulation Drives ETH to Break Key Levels, Analysts Follow $7500

Ethereum (ETH) has recently successfully broken through a key resistance level, with prices stabilizing above $4,300. Behind this strong performance, market signals are mixed: on one hand, large whale wallets are continuously increasing their holdings on a large scale, and exchange reserves have fallen to a three-year low, demonstrating the firm faith of long-term investors; on the other hand, small investors and short-term holders are selling, with active on-chain addresses and net open interest in futures declining, indicating a divergence in market sentiment that may signal challenges ahead for future trends.

Price Breakthrough and Technical Analysis

Ethereum's price has performed strongly recently, successfully breaking through the key resistance range of 4,089 to 4,283 USD. Although it encountered resistance upon reaching the 4,500 USD mark, its price remains solidly around 4,300 USD, holding the key support at 4,089 USD.

Bullish target: Market analysts maintain a long-term bullish outlook on Ethereum, with Yusuf AYHAN setting the price target between $7,000 and $7,500. If the current bullish momentum continues, it could even reach $11,000.

Technical support: From a technical perspective, Ethereum has successfully defended key support levels multiple times, with deep security support located in the range of 2,000 to 2,150 dollars, while stronger support is between 1,650 and 1,850 dollars.

Trading volume: Since Ethereum reclaimed the $4,000 mark, trading volume has significantly increased, which is often seen by technical analysts as a signal of genuine buying confidence behind the price rise.

On-chain data: Divergent investor behavior

On-chain data shows that the Ethereum market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the behavior patterns of large investors and small investors being distinctly different.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

Large holders (Whales) continue to accumulate: large wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have collectively increased their holdings by over 450,000 ETH in the past week. This accumulation trend has been ongoing since May. Additionally, the exchange reserves of Ethereum have dropped to their lowest level in three years, reflecting that investors are transferring ETH from exchanges to personal Wallets for long-term holding.

Corporate entities buying in: Corporate entities have also joined the ranks of coin buyers. BitMine Immersion (BMNR) increased its holdings by approximately 202,500 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to over 2 million coins, while SharpLink Gaming also increased its holdings by 39,500 ETH, highlighting institutional confidence in Ethereum's long-term prospects.

Small holders (retail investors) take profits: In contrast to whales, small wallets holding between 100 and 10,000 ETH have sold over 500,000 ETH in the past week. This indicates that some short-term investors are taking profits after the recent price increase. Additionally, the "average token age" metric, which represents the selling behavior of short-term holders, also shows that ETH purchased in the past 90 days is being sold.

Derivatives Market and Risk Indicators

While technical and on-chain indicators present mixed signals, the derivatives market has also issued some cautious signals.

Decreased activity: The number of active on-chain addresses and total trading volume has decreased compared to previous weeks, which usually indicates a weakening of network activity and user engagement.

Futures Holdings: The net open interest of Ethereum futures has dropped to an all-time low, indicating that short positions betting on price declines outnumber long positions betting on price increases, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

High liquidation: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount of Ethereum futures contracts reached 64 million USD, with long liquidations at 31.6 million USD and short liquidations at 32.5 million USD, showing that the market is highly volatile, and both long and short positions are suffering losses in the game.

Conclusion

The Ethereum market is at a critical crossroads. Although positive signals such as price breakouts and Whale accumulation indicate that its long-term value is being recognized, the short-term investors' dumping and the cautious sentiment in the derivatives market also foreshadow future uncertainties. These two opposing forces are at odds with each other, making the short-term trend of the market difficult to predict. The next few trading days will be crucial, revealing whether Ethereum's future direction will be dominated by long-term conviction or short-term speculation.