Bitcoin 104,000–116,000 USD Consolidation Analysis: Breakthrough or Pullback?

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a consolidation range between $104,000 and $116,000, with a preliminary report of around $110,789 on September 5. Market sentiment and on-chain data indicate that this area may become a key watershed for determining the next trend. If it breaks above the resistance, demand may reassert dominance in the market; conversely, if it falls below the support, it could trigger a new round of pullback.

On-chain data reveals key price levels

(Source: Glassnode)

According to Glassnode's analysis, the current trading range corresponds to a cost basis of the 0.85–0.95 percentile, and historically this area often serves as a consolidation channel after the peaks of a bull market.

Support level: 104,100 USD

Resistance level: $114,300

Breaking below support will reenact the early ATH exhaustion trend of this cycle, possibly pushing prices towards $93,000–$95,000; conversely, if resistance is broken, it will signify that demand has regained control of the market rhythm.

Short-term holders' sentiment warms up

(Source: Glassnode)

In mid-August, when BTC fell to $108,000, the profit ratio of short-term holders plummeted from over 90% to 42%, triggering panic selling. However, the subsequent rebound caused the profit ratio to rise back to 60%, and market sentiment turned neutral.

Only when the price stabilizes above the $114,000–116,000 range can the profit ratio of short-term holders exceed 75%, thus attracting new funds to enter.

Futures and ETF fund flows indicate cooling demand

The financing rate in the futures market is currently $366,000 per hour, between the neutral baseline ($300,000) and the overheating range (above $1 million), indicating that leverage demand is not overly aggressive.

The fund inflow of the spot Bitcoin ETF has明显放缓 since April:

The average daily inflow in April exceeded 3,000 BTC.

From July, it dropped to an average of 540 BTC per day.

In comparison, Ethereum ETFs have also shown a similar cooling, with daily inflows dropping from 56,000–85,000 ETH to 16,600 ETH.

Historical Patterns and Potential Risks

The current sideways phase occurs after the third wave of the frenzy in this cycle, and this phase usually requires continuous capital inflows to offset the profit-taking pressure.

Historical data shows that if there is insufficient capital inflow, prices often break key support and enter a deep pullback.

Therefore, $104,000 has become the most important support level in the short term. Once it falls below this level, the market may quickly drop to $93,000–$95,000.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a critical decision point: a breakout above $116,000 will reignite bullish confidence, while a fall below $104,000 could trigger a new round of deep pullbacks. Investors need to closely monitor on-chain data, ETF fund flows, and changes in short-term holder sentiment, as these factors will directly impact BTC's next move.