两位经济学家预计日本经济2024年将萎缩

GoldenOctober2024

金十数据7月2日讯,在第一季度GDP数据被大幅下修的第二天,两位经济学家转变了对日本经济的看法,预计2024年将出现萎缩,这也凸显出日本央行在权衡加息理由之际所面临的难题,据周二的报告,法巴银行和日本SMBC日兴证券的经济学家下调了经济增长预期,预计2024年将是日本自2020年疫情以来首次出现年度萎缩。法国巴黎银行经济学家Ryutaro Kono预计GDP将萎缩0.4%,Yoshimasa Maruyama等SMBC等经济学家称经济料将下滑0.3%。这两位经济学家之前都预测日本经济会出现小幅扩张。日本政府周一发布报告,将第一季度经济萎缩幅度从之前的1.8%修正至2.9%。经济预期的调整将成为日本央行政策委员会成员在本月底开会讨论的一个因素。据上周进行的一项调查显示,三分之一的受访经济学家预计日本央行将会在该次会议上加息。

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