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Interesting what is emerging from the most authoritative voices on the upcoming Fed meeting. Roger Ferguson, who served as Vice Chairman at the Federal Reserve, highlighted a crucial point: the labor market currently appears stable. But it's not all roses and sunshine, because inflation continues to be a major headache with the 3% still firmly present.
According to early reports, Ferguson believes that the Fed will take time to observe how things develop before making drastic moves. He is not the only one thinking this way. David Mericle of Goldman Sachs largely agrees: he expects that after the meeting, the Fed will acknowledge progress in the labor market and signs of inflation slowdown, but will maintain the current policy stance without surprises.
The general feeling is that most members are expected to vote to keep rates where they are. There may be a dissenting vote, but nothing more — a dynamic similar to what was seen in March. The market seems prepared for a scenario of tactical pause rather than significant changes.