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A public chain deeply integrated with Telegram—Analysis of the Top Gainers: TON
To talk about the most popular public chain project recently, I believe it’s none other than Ton. Today’s DOGS is its on-chain project. The unique aspect of TON is that it is not just a blockchain but an ecosystem deeply linked with the world's largest communication platform, Telegram. Let’s take a look at it today.
1. Basic Fundamentals Introduction
TON (The Open Network) is a next-generation blockchain platform focusing on speed, security, and scalability. Its core design philosophy is to handle millions of transactions per second when necessary, while remaining user- and service provider-friendly.
TON’s history dates back to 2018, when Telegram founder Pavel Durov launched the TON project and raised $1.7 billion, but it was later halted due to legal proceedings by the U.S. SEC. In 2020, community developers took over the project and continued development, transforming TON from "Telegram’s blockchain" to "Telegram ecosystem’s blockchain." In May 2026, a fundamental shift occurred—Durov officially announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the main driving force and largest validator of TON, which is the second step in the MTONGA roadmap’s 7 steps.
TON’s technical architecture adopts an "infinite sharding" design, achieving horizontal scalability through dynamic sharding mechanisms, theoretically increasing throughput infinitely as demand grows.
The core application scenarios of the TON ecosystem include: Mini App ecosystem within Telegram, TON Space wallets, on-chain payments (USDT issuance on TON has exceeded 1 billion), DeFi protocols (staking, lending, DEX), and recently launched AI agent functions (TON Tech released an AI agent on April 28 that can autonomously perform on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi operations, and staking).
2. Current Market Overview
TON’s current price is $1.8151 USDT, with a 24-hour surge of 30.36%, and intraday volatility between 1.3635 and 1.8742. The 7-day increase is 37.35%, 30-day increase is 46.85%, and 90-day increase is 44.06%, showing a very strong short-term upward trend. Market cap is approximately $4.85B, ranked 27th, making it a mid-cap token.
The 24-hour trading volume is about 15.6 million USDT, with a trading volume of 9.03M TON. Contract holdings increased by 22.36% over 24 hours (from 189.5 million to 231.9 million), indicating highly volatile leverage trading. The Fear & Greed index has risen to 50, shifting market sentiment from fear to neutral leaning towards greed.
Social sentiment is extremely optimistic: 85% positive, 15% negative, with a sentiment score of 70%, dominated by bullish sentiment. Discussion activity has surged—posts in the last 3 days increased by 75% compared to the previous 4–6 days (89 vs. 51).
3. Recent Major Events and Catalysts for Rise
Event 1: Telegram officially takes over TON (most core catalyst)
On May 4–5, Durov officially announced that Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the main driver and largest validator of TON. This means TON shifts from a "community-driven blockchain" back to an "officially supported Telegram blockchain," backed by the world's largest communication platform with 900 million monthly active users. Related technical upgrades will be launched within 2–3 weeks. This is the most direct catalyst for the recent surge—Telegram’s official endorsement provides unprecedented credibility and user reach for TON.
Event 2: Transaction fees reduced by 6 times to near zero
After validator voting approval, TON network transaction fees have been reduced by about 6 times. Sending TON now costs approximately $0.00052, and USDT transfer costs about $0.00142. Near-zero fees significantly lower the barrier for users, laying the infrastructure foundation for explosive growth in micro-payments, on-chain DeFi, and Mini Apps ecosystem.
Event 3: TON Tech launches AI agents
On April 28, TON Tech launched AI agents capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi operations, and staking without user private key interaction. The AI + blockchain narrative is one of the hottest tracks in 2026, and TON’s deployment in this field adds extra narrative premium.
Event 4: Mainnet validator rules update
On May 2, TON officially released an update to mainnet validator rules, proposing to raise the minimum staking from 824k TON to 1 million, and the maximum to 3 million. Increasing staking thresholds means validators need to hold more TON to participate in network maintenance, which will boost staking demand and reduce circulating supply, providing structural support for the token price.
4. Technical Analysis
Trend signals
The trend is extremely strong. The 4-hour ADX is 49.73 (PDI=53.53 far exceeds MDI=1.68), and the daily ADX is similarly high, indicating a strong upward trend among all analyzed tokens. From 15-minute to daily charts, all moving averages are in bullish alignment—MA7 > MA30 > MA120 across all timeframes, confirming a consistent upward trend.
The 4-hour PDI (53.53) and MDI (1.68) show a huge gap (about 32 times), indicating that upward momentum almost completely dominates downward momentum, with bulls in full control. Such an extreme PDI/MDI ratio rarely appears in normal markets and often signals a major rally after positive catalysts.
Bollinger Bands are opening upward, and the price is far above the upper band—current price at 1.7928 is about 10.5% above the Bollinger upper band at 1.6220, with a bandwidth of 0.4883 far exceeding the 20-day average bandwidth of 0.2828. The price breaking above the upper band suggests strong momentum.
24-hour volume surge—trading volume is about 37 times the 7-day average (824k vs. 41,500 USDT), indicating significantly increased market participation. Unlike DOGS, where the price rise was shrinking in volume, TON’s rapid surge is supported by ample funds, making the rally more credible.
Comparison with DOGS overbought condition
Both TON and DOGS are in extreme overbought states, but their overbought natures differ:
TON has volume support—trading volume is 37 times the 7-day average, driven by real funds; DOGS’s price rise is shrinking in volume, with only 1/650 of the 7-day average, lacking fund support.
TON has fundamental catalysts—Telegram takeover + fee reduction + AI agents + staking threshold increase, multiple substantial positive factors stacking; DOGS’s catalysts mainly come from Revolut listing and ecosystem spillover effects.
TON’s market cap is larger—$15.42M (rank 27) vs. DOGS’s $37.39 million (rank 576), with more liquidity and relatively controlled volatility.
This means that although TON is severely overbought, it has higher "value"—supported by funds and fundamentals, so the correction may be milder; while the overbought state lacking support could see sharper declines.
5. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Short-term (1–3 days)
TON is in a state of "extremely strong trend + severe overbought + volume surge + major catalysts." Unlike DOGS’s false overbought, TON’s surge is supported by real funds and fundamentals, making its overbought condition more meaningful.
However, extreme overbought conditions almost always lead to technical pullbacks. It’s not suitable to chase high now. If you already hold TON, consider partial profit-taking—at the 4-hour RSI=91, a correction could happen at any time. Protect your realized gains rather than chasing more unrealized profits.
If you don’t hold TON but want to buy in, wait for a pullback to the 4-hour support levels before entering. The 4-hour MA7 (~1.61) and MA30 (~1.40) are potential support levels. By then, overbought indicators will likely have been digested, offering a better risk-reward entry.
Negative funding rate (-0.000076) favors long positions—holders can earn funding fees during the position, an additional advantage for long positions on TON.
Mid-to-long-term (1–3 months)
TON’s medium to long-term outlook improves significantly with Telegram’s takeover catalyst. Its reach of 900 million users + near-zero fees + staking threshold increase + AI narrative form a strong bullish case. The subsequent steps in the MTONGA roadmap will be key variables for the medium-term trend.
However, the current surge is mainly driven by news catalysts rather than actual ecosystem activity growth. It takes time for catalysts to translate into real use cases, and there may be expectations gaps and corrections along the way. Investors with a medium- to long-term view should focus on actual ecosystem data rather than just narratives.