Dimon: Global Economy 'Far Less Reliant' On Energy Than In The Past

Jamie Dimon’s annual shareholder letter on Monday pointed to geopolitical turmoil as the key risk to the global economy. Risks related to the ongoing war in Ukraine and newly erupted conflict in Iran have the potential to spiral out of control, JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) CEO wrote.

“War is the realm of uncertainty, as each side in a war determines what it wants to do (as is often said, ‘the enemy gets a vote’), and these conflicts involve many countries,” Dimon wrote. “Not only do they have a major impact on the nations at war, but they also have an impact on countries and economies across the globe that are not directly involved in war.”

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Dimon has regularly mentioned geopolitics in his annual letters since taking over the top job in 2006. However, in recent years — mostly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine — Dimon has taken to describing geopolitical issues as among the preeminent risks to the global economy.

Oil Prices, Energy Markets

Among the most acute dangers facing the global economy, Dimon says, are the spiking energy prices resulting from the war in Iran. Since the war started on Feb. 28, Iran has stopped ships linked to the U.S., Israel and their allies from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route for oil, natural gas and other exports out of the Persian Gulf. As a result, global supplies are tightening, sending prices higher.

While acknowledging the risk, Dimon did say the world is better positioned to weather this energy crisis than in the past.

“It’s helpful to recognize that the world’s economy is far larger and more diversified and far less reliant on energy as an input versus 20 years ago,” Dimon wrote. “Global energy consumption to the global gross domestic product is only about 40% of what it was around 45 years ago, say in the early 1980s, and the United States, instead of being a major importer on a net basis, is now a major exporter.”

Stock Market Today: Trump Threatens Iran, Dow Falls

About 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a February report from the International Energy Agency. Since the start of the war, only tankers favored by Iran have been able to pass through the strait. Ships are prevented from passing due to Iranian threats to attack them, and also because shipping companies have been unable to obtain insurance for their vessels, making transit too risky.

The supply squeeze has pushed U.S. oil prices as high as $115 a barrel and Europe’s Brent crude benchmark briefly above $119. U.S. crude oil prices traded around $110 on Monday after topping $115 early in the session.

The closure also has knock-on effects for industries that use petroleum-based byproducts such as plastic, asphalt and synthetic fabrics. Meanwhile, other key goods like fertilizer and raw materials, including aluminum and helium, are also unable to pass through the strait at the moment.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Stocks

JPMorgan stock has had a rocky start to the year, falling about 3%, after having outpaced the market in 2025 with a 35% gain. The stock hit an all-time in early January. Since then, shares are down 12%.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its price target on JPMorgan stock to 365 from 352 ahead of its April 14 earnings report. Goldman analysts said the decline in share price this year made the stock more appealing and closer to historical levels, according to TheFly.com.

In the first quarter analysts expect JPMorgan to deliver 6.7% earnings per share growth to $5.41, and a revenue increase of 8% to $48.96 billion, according to FactSet estimates.

Meanwhile, others on Wall Street including HSBC and Evercore lowered their price targets ahead of JPMorgan’s quarterly earnings.

Goldman Sachs (GS) got a cut of its own on Monday when Jefferies lowered its price target to 1,049 from 1,125. Jefferies kept its buy rating on Goldmans’ shares. Despite lowering the firm’s target, Jefferies analysts noted the firm’s year-over-year Q2 EPS estimate for Goldman increased 11% to $15.60.

The Wall Street consensus for Goldman Sachs’ first-quarter earnings is $16.37, which would mean a 16% increase from the previous year, according to FactSet. Analysts project first-quarter revenue to be $16.92 billion, up 12% vs. 2025.

Goldman Sachs stock is down about 3% this year. Shares are in a consolidation, 12% off a January high and facing a test of resistance at their 10-week line after rebounding from 40-week support.

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