44% of Bitcoin Supply Is Losing Money: When Will the Bear Market End?

The Bitcoin market is facing significant pressure as the percentage of loss-making supply rises sharply. According to the latest data from Glassnode, around 44% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply is currently in the loss zone. At present, Bitcoin is trading around $66,450, down about 47% from the $126,000 peak set in October 2025. This deep correction has forced investors to absorb approximately $598.7 billion in unrealized losses, with roughly 8.8 million BTC currently sitting in negative equity. A Similar Market Structure to 2022 Glassnode believes the current backdrop has many similarities to Q2 2022—the period when the market entered a phase of steep decline. Based on the analysis, to absorb the large amount of losses like those seen today, the market needs a process of asset transfer from loss-making investors to fresh capital entering at lower price levels. Notably, the long-term investor group (holding for more than 155 days) is recording realized losses of about $200 million per day. Glassnode views this as a sign of active stop-loss activity. In history, when this figure drops below $25 million per day, it often signals that selling pressure has weakened and the market may be nearing a bottoming zone. Pressure from ETFs and Weakening Demand Another factor adding pressure is that the price of Bitcoin is still below $83,408—which is considered the average cost basis of spot Bitcoin ETF investors in the U.S. This means that the institutional investor cohort using ETFs is also experiencing losses. In the week ending March 27, global Bitcoin investment products recorded net outflows of more than $194 million, indicating that cautious sentiment remains dominant. On the demand side, data from Capriole Investments shows the “apparent demand” indicator is at -1,623 BTC, reflecting that selling pressure is overwhelming. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant says the prolonged contraction in demand that started in November 2025 confirms the market is still in a “distribution” phase. When Will the Bear Market End? Based on on-chain data, some key signals to watch include: The realized losses of long-term investors fall sharply to below $25 million per day.The buying demand returns and the “apparent demand” indicator turns positive.ETF flows stop seeing net outflows and begin to stabilize or rise again. Until the above factors become clearly evident, the market is likely still in the process of correction and redistribution. However, just like in previous cycles, the most bearish period is often also when the groundwork is laid for the next growth cycle.