2月25日消息，狗狗币（DOGE）当前正处于关键结构与技术区间，链上研究机构 AMBCrypto 指出，其价格已进入罕见的历史折价水平，这一特征往往对应长期底部构建阶段，而非短期反转信号。数据显示，“盈利天数”指标已升至1100天历史新高，意味着绝大多数历史交易日价格高于当前水平，大量DOGE持有者仍处于深度浮亏状态。
该现象通常出现在市场后期调整周期，反映出市场仍存在显著剩余供应，同时长期持有者规模庞大，但结构周期指标尚未释放明确的触底信号。从持有者净持仓变化来看，2021年与2024年牛市末期，大量DOGE在周期顶部被抛售，而在0.095美元至0.34美元区间的持续买入，则显著抬高了整体持仓成本。
值得注意的是，自2025年1月以来持续的逢低买盘叠加比特币（BTC）看涨预期在2025年10月落空，使DOGE价格在过去一年由0.35美元下滑至约0.092美元，进一步扩大未实现亏损规模。MVRV定价区间模型显示，历史两轮周期中，狗狗币均在0.8倍实际价格附近震荡接近两年后才重新站稳关键支撑位。若历史节奏延续，DOGE价格走势、MVRV估值区间与链上持有者行为或暗示其仍处于长期筑底阶段，重新夺回约0.140美元的实际价格支撑可能需要更长时间消化抛压。
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