分析：机构对加密行情有些过于乐观，历史预示底部尚未到来

GateNews

2026-02-10 00:50:59

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PANews 2月10日消息，Greeks.live宏观研究员Adam在X平台发文表示，加密行情平稳了一些，主要期限IV出现了明显的下降，但是近一周的实际波动RV仍然较高，造成目前一周级别的VRP出现了创纪录的平均下降45%的记录。具体数据上看，从上周+20%的水平，下跌到目前-25%的水平，这种现象比较少见。这意味着市场正在快速降低对波动的预期，进度有些过快了，毕竟比特币的波动具有很强的聚集性。机构对行情有些过于乐观，这种不谨慎如果面对第二轮下跌，会被非常被动。期权市场的不理性程度明显上升了，机构也被最近的行情打懵了。历史上出现此类的情况，往往代表着底部尚未到来。

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