自2025年3月以来，Polkadot（DOT）价格整体处于长期下跌趋势，但在近期市场波动加剧的背景下，DOT过去一周仍录得约4.4%的反弹。这一表现，在比特币价格震荡、加密市场情绪偏谨慎的环境中，属于相对稳健的短期修复行情。
从多时间框架分析来看，DOT的中长期趋势依然偏空。周线级别显示，自去年9月以来的下跌结构仍在延续，价格多次出现下破后的回抽。成交量相关指标反映出持续的抛压，动能指标也未出现明确的趋势反转信号。2.5美元附近的历史供应区，依然被视为中期重要的潜在抛售区域。
不过，在4小时图上，短期结构已经发生变化。价格先后突破了1.75美元和1.85美元的前期低点，形成看涨结构性突破，表明短线资金正在主动介入。资金流向与动量指标同步走强，使DOT具备继续上探的技术条件。从这一周期来看，2美元这一心理关口有望被测试，若情绪配合，甚至可能触及2.1美元至2.5美元之间的周线供应带。
需要注意的是，多头面临的系统性风险仍然存在。比特币在9万美元附近持续承压，使整体市场缺乏明确的风险偏好回暖信号。在这种背景下，山寨币反弹往往缺乏持续性，容易在关键阻力位遭遇获利回吐。短周期看涨并不意味着长期趋势已经反转，中长期投资者需对反弹行情保持理性预期。
从交易角度看，当前DOT更适合作为反弹交易而非趋势反转布局。技术模型显示，2.0至2.1美元区域存在较密集的空头清算与流动性聚集，价格向该区间靠拢的概率较高，适合短线获利了结。一旦价格跌破1.82美元，短期多头结构将被破坏，反弹逻辑随之失效。
总体而言，Polkadot价格突破2美元并非不可能，但前提是短线动能延续且市场整体情绪不再恶化。在长期趋势尚未扭转之前，风险控制仍是参与DOT行情的核心要点。
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