Raoul Pal:资本轮动或是Zcash暴涨主因,尚未确认长期牛市开启

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Real Vision 创始人、知名宏观投资者 Raoul Pal 近日表示,隐私加密货币 Zcash 近期的大幅上涨,更可能源于市场中的资本轮动,而非一轮已经确立的结构性牛市行情。他强调,目前阶段仍需保持谨慎观察。

Pal 在播客节目《When Shift Happens》中指出,判断 Zcash 是否真正进入长期上升趋势,关键在于整体市场是否同步走强并维持趋势,而不仅仅是资金在不同板块之间快速切换。“只有当市场整体持续上涨,而不是简单的轮动,我们才能确认趋势成立,”他说。

数据显示,Zcash 年内涨幅十分惊人。根据 CoinMarketCap 数据,Zcash 当前价格约为 385 美元,自年初以来累计上涨超过 690%。不过,近一个月其价格出现明显回调,30 天内跌幅约为 37%,上涨动能已有所减弱。

Raoul Pal 认为,Zcash 接下来的关键在于能否在高位回调后构建稳固的价格底部。“你真正想看到的是,它在上涨后找到底部,然后再次启动新一轮上涨,”他表示。基于这一判断,Pal 并不倾向于在当前价位追高买入,而更倾向于等待下一轮回调机会。

值得注意的是,在整体加密市场波动加剧的背景下,Zcash 仍曾出现逆势走强的表现,其市值从8月不足10亿美元,一度飙升至11月初超过70亿美元,引发市场高度关注。

Zcash 的这一轮行情,也与多位行业意见领袖的发声有关。10月下旬,加密货币企业家 Arthur Hayes 曾公开预测,Zcash 长期价格可能达到 1 万美元,消息发布后,Zcash 在 24 小时内上涨约 30%,进一步点燃市场情绪。

与此同时,机构层面对 Zcash 的兴趣也在升温。11 月底,Grayscale 向美国证券交易委员会提交文件,计划将其 Zcash 信托产品转化为现货 ETF。此前,Grayscale 已成功推出比特币、以太坊等多只加密资产现货 ETF。

综合来看,Zcash 的强势表现既反映了隐私赛道的阶段性热度,也凸显了资本轮动对价格的推动作用。是否能演变为长期牛市,仍有待市场进一步验证。

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