Analysis: Approximately $23.8 billion in Bitcoin options will expire on December 26th, potentially leading to "concentrated clearing and re-pricing of risk exposure" at the end of the year.

On December 14, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin options with a notional value of approximately $23.8 billion will expire on December 26, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products. This indicates that the BTC derivatives market will experience a “concentration of risk liquidation and repricing” at the end of the year. Prices may be structurally constrained before expiration, but uncertainty actually increases after expiration. From the data, the two nearest open interest (OI) positions relative to the current BTC spot price are: puts at $85,000 with 14,674 BTC; calls at $100,000 with 18,116 BTC. In terms of scale, this is not retail activity but large-scale long-term capital, most likely ETF hedging positions, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and other institutional holders with long-term large BTC spot holdings. The put options at the $85,000 strike price are buyer-initiated, reflecting a strong demand for downside risk hedging at that level. Similarly, the large accumulated call OI at the $100,000 strike price essentially does not indicate “market optimism up to this point,” but rather that long-term funds are willing to concede upward potential above this level in exchange for current certainty in cash flow and overall risk control. By buying puts below and selling calls above, the profit distribution of BTC is compressed within an acceptable range. When the OI is already highly established, this $85,000–$100,000 options corridor will exert a “hidden upward pressure, passive buffer below, and structural fluctuation in the middle” on BTC prices before December 26.