美国谘商会:领先指标连续第二个月下滑 年底至明年初增长将放缓

金色财经报道,美国谘商会高级经理、商业周期指标负责人Justyna Zabinska-La Monica表示,9月美国领先经济指标再次下降,为连续第二个月回落。消费者和企业预期的减弱主导了该指数的整体收缩。拖累指标的主要分项包括消费者预期、ISM新订单指数、制造业消费品和原材料新订单、初请失业金人数以及收益率曲线。不过也有部分指标提供正面贡献,包括股价、领先信贷指数,以及剔除飞机的非国防资本品新订单。指标趋势表明,美国经济活动将在2025年底至2026年初放缓。整体而言,经济增长依然脆弱且不均衡,企业正应对关税政策调整和消费者动能减弱的双重挑战。预计美国2025年GDP将增长1.8%,2026年进一步放缓至1.5%。

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