金色财经报道,因美国政府停摆而延迟发布的九月非农就业报告定于今晚发布。在当前经济环境快速演变的背景下,这份数据的时效性或已大打折扣。但这份就业报告很可能将是未来数月最后一份数据质量可靠的就业报告,因为此次政府停摆严重干扰了10月及11月部分时段数据收集与分析的正常流程。经济学家普遍预测9月将新增五万个就业岗位,失业率预计将维持在4.3%不变。若数据符合预期,2025年将注定成为自疫情时期乃至全球金融危机以来,美国就业增长最为乏力的一年。Indeed Hiring Lab经济学家艾莉森·什里瓦斯塔瓦表示,相较既往报告,并不认为9月报告会有重大变化,当前劳动力市场的疲软态势将会延续。Pantheon Macroeconomics高级美国经济学家奥利弗·艾伦则表示,任何在当前看来不尽人意的数据,均可能因持续六周的数据真空期而持续发酵,其负面影响或已被放大。(金十)
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