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The probability of a government shutdown in the U.S. this year on Kalshi has dropped to 63%.
On September 28, according to prediction market Kalshi data, the market currently estimates the likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown this year has decreased from 77.9% yesterday to 63%. House Minority Leader Jeffries just stated that there is a "hope" to avoid a government shutdown. Earlier reports indicated that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer warned at the beginning of the month that if the Republicans refuse to include key healthcare provisions in any agreement, the Democrats are prepared to let government funding run out. Trump will meet with congressional leaders on September 29, including Senate Minority Leader Schumer, House Minority Leader Jeffries, House Speaker Johnson, and Senate Majority Leader Thune.