The impact of the economic cycle on personal wealth accumulation cannot be underestimated. Many people often say, "Getting rich in life relies on the Kondratieff wave, not on hard work." Although this statement is somewhat extreme, it does reflect the importance of the economic cycle.

In fact, the wealth accumulation of many successful individuals is not solely dependent on personal effort, but rather benefits from seizing the right economic cycles. For example, coal entrepreneurs in certain regions or real estate investors in large cities have achieved success largely because they timed their entry with the industry's or market's upward cycles. This income gap may persist for a long time, enough to change a person's life trajectory.

Economists typically divide the economic cycle into three categories:

1. Kitchin Cycle (3-5 years): This is a shorter-term cycle mainly related to inventory changes. For example, the breeding cycle of pigs or the capacity construction cycle of the photovoltaic industry. In this cycle, the rapid changes in demand often lead to a lagging response in supply, creating a cycle of "demand exceeds supply → supply surplus."

2. Juglar cycle (9-10 years): This medium-term cycle is related to fixed asset renewal. The depreciation period of most machinery and equipment is about 10 years, and the expiration of this period will drive an economic upturn. In recent years, economic growth has slowed, partly due to the overlap of equipment renewal cycles and the real estate cycle, leading to a decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment.

3. Kondratiev Cycle (approximately 50 years): This is a long-term cycle that is usually associated with significant technological innovations. From the era of the steam engine to the internet age, each wave of the Kondratiev cycle has generated new groups of wealthy individuals, such as the Rothschild family, Rockefeller, and Bill Gates.

It is worth noting that the famous economist Zhou Jintao once predicted that the period from 2016 to 2026 is the downturn of the Kondratiev wave, and that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new upward cycle. This means that 2025-2026 may be an important turning point, representing the end of the old cycle and the beginning of a new one.

However, we should not blindly follow the cycle theory. When focusing on economic cycles, the following principles should be followed: understand trends, cautiously assess risks, and maintain strategic flexibility. Economic cycles are not mysterious phenomena, but rather phenomena that follow certain规律, and they also contain potential opportunities.

How should we position ourselves in the face of the upcoming new economic cycle? Which sectors could become the new engines of economic growth in the next round? These questions are worth our in-depth consideration and discussion.