金十整理：美联储7月利率决议看点一览

GoldenOctober2024

2025-07-30 17:16:24

FOMC声明：1. 投票比例：或以9-2的投票比例通过此次利率决定，理事鲍曼和沃勒料投反对票。2. 措辞对比：料难有实质性改动，或简化经济前景不确定性表述，承认上半年经济增长放缓。3. 缩表规模：大概率维持不变（每月减持50亿美元美债和350亿美元MBS）。鲍威尔发布会：1. 利率前景：如何看待6月点阵图所暗示的“两次降息 ”预期？会否给出9月降息前景的线索？2. 经济数据：料强调数据重要性，延续数据依赖、逐会决策的沟通风格。3. 通胀与关税：或保持谨慎，重申维持物价稳定；若强调关税对通胀的上行风险，或比预期更鹰派。4. 任期与独立性：面对特朗普频频施压，大概率不会做出实质性回应，料重申任期内保持独立与专业。

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