摩根大通指出市场陷入两大误判:能源独立救不了美国,市场对局势缓和过于乐观

BlockBeatNews

BlockBeats 消息,4 月 7 日,摩根大通资产管理主席 Michael Cembalest 发布最新报告,描述美伊海湾冲突如何从「清除邪恶」演变为各方皆损的局面。报告指出投资者对伊朗局势存在两大主要误判。

首先市场误判了美国的能源独立(作为净出口国)能成为抵御海峡封锁或油价冲击的「防火墙」。但实际并非如此——美国化石燃料仍占最终能源消费的 85%,全球油价上涨会以超过 100% 的传导率直接推高美国国内原油、汽油、航煤等价格,天然气以外的多种碳氢化合物价格涨幅甚至高于欧洲和亚洲。

**其次市场低估了伊朗通过「挟持全球经济」的策略成本与效果,对局势缓和的预期过于乐观。**伊朗已发现控制海峡比想象中更廉价且有效,因此没有快速退让的压力。

Cembalest 在报告中强调,快速转向可再生能源以减少化石燃料依赖在当前速率下需要 10-15 年,属于「狂热幻想」。整体而言这场冲突暴露了美国军事与能源策略的局限性,没有明显赢家。Cembalest 还提醒投资者需警惕系统性风险。

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