比特币徘徊于68,000美元关口,巨鲸抛售与需求疲软加剧下行风险

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Gate News 消息,比特币价格回落至68,000美元附近,此前多次冲击70,000美元关口未果,市场动能明显减弱。当前价格仍处于65,000至73,000美元的震荡区间内,但向下测试区间下沿的风险正在上升。

链上数据平台Glassnode显示,近期价格反弹缺乏成交量与活跃地址支撑,市场参与度有限,反映出需求端持续疲软。与此同时,流动性机构Caladan指出,大额持有者正持续减仓,使得比特币走势更多依赖宏观资金流和衍生品驱动,而非现货市场的真实买盘。

衍生品市场的信号同样偏向谨慎。期权数据显示,下行保护需求上升,隐含波动率持续高于实际波动率,表明投资者正在为潜在剧烈波动提前布局。在68,000美元附近形成的负伽玛结构,可能导致做市商在价格下跌时被动抛售,从而放大跌幅。

若关键支撑失守,市场可能进入加速下行阶段。分析认为,一旦跌破区间下沿,价格存在向60,000美元回落的空间。预测平台Polymarket数据显示,市场对4月跌至65,000美元以下的概率预期已升至68%,而冲击80,000美元的预期明显降温。

当前比特币市场呈现出“表面稳定、内在脆弱”的特征。若缺乏新增资金入场或宏观环境改善,价格结构或难以维持,短期走势将高度依赖关键支撑位的表现。

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