Gate News 消息，4 月 6 日，Sygnum Bank 首席投资官 Fabian Dori 表示，在伊朗冲突升级期间，预测市场正成为交易员监测宏观风险的实时工具。Polymarket 与 Kalshi 等平台对美国是否升级冲突的押注概率出现快速重定价，并与比特币价格走势呈现直接相关性。预测市场以真实资金对明确事件结果进行定价，对于受监管、地缘政治及协议升级等二元事件驱动明显的加密市场而言，提供了差异化信号。

数据显示，预测市场 3 月交易笔数达约 1.91 亿笔，同比增长 2838%，月度名义交易量升至约 239 亿美元。部分专业交易团队已将预测市场纳入宏观分析框架，与资金费率、期权结构及资金流等指标并行使用，用于在事件发生前制定交易策略。

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