美联储巴尔金:加息逻辑主要围绕通胀预期上升,目前未见突破迹象

Gate News 消息,4 月 1 日,里士满联储主席巴尔金周二表示,企业目前的行为显示其认为高油价只是短期扰动,几乎没有证据表明这已导致消费者削减支出或以令人担忧的方式改变通胀预期。巴尔金指出:“我的直觉是,大家仍然是以短期视角看待这一问题。汽油支出显然大幅上升,但其他支出看起来仍然相当健康。”

巴尔金表示,目前存在可能推动美联储政策朝任何方向变化的情景。在他看来,加息的逻辑可能主要围绕通胀预期上升,这种情况将迫使决策者证明其致力于将通胀维持在 2% 目标附近。他表示:“加息的理由将围绕通胀预期最终开始上行展开。但我目前没有看到这种突破。”

相比之下,降息的情景将包括通胀从当前高出目标约 1 个百分点的水平快速回落至 2%,或就业市场走弱,需要通过降息提供支撑。

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