鲍威尔今晚亮相:中东局势叠加通胀压力,降息预期再受考验

BlockBeatNews

BlockBeats 消息,3 月 30 日,美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间今晚 22:30 出席公开活动并接受现场问答。在中东局势持续紧张、市场波动加剧的背景下,此次讲话被视为本周最受关注的宏观事件之一。

市场普遍预计,鲍威尔或将延续谨慎立场,避免对降息路径给出明确信号。在当前通胀仍高于 2% 目标、叠加关税与地缘冲突推升不确定性的情况下,美联储短期内维持利率不变的概率上升,「不降息」预期持续强化。

与此同时,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与美联储之间的紧张关系仍在延续。若鲍威尔释放偏鹰派或观望信号,市场预计特朗普或再次施压,强化政策博弈。

基本面方面,美国就业市场出现走弱迹象,2 月新增就业大幅下滑,经济前景承压,使美联储陷入「高通胀+增长放缓」的两难局面。分析人士指出,在中东局势未明朗前,货币政策大概率保持观望,市场走势仍将高度依赖地缘政治与通胀路径变化。

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