截至 3 月 29 日，美國在中東地區的兵力已超過 5 萬人，但尚無地面部隊確認進入伊朗境內。與此同時，預測市場 Polymarket 上的「士兵何時進入伊朗」合約已累計 4,960 萬美元的交易量，押注 4 月 30 日前美軍進入伊朗的機率達 71%，年底前達 78%。
美軍中東集結現況：突襲預案已備，命令尚未下達
自 2 月 28 日美聯軍對伊朗展開空襲以來，美國在中東的兵力集結持續推進，衝突已進入第五週。目前確認的增兵動態包括：路透社報道美國計劃再增派數千名士兵； Axios 披露白宮與五角大廈正考慮增派至少一支額外作戰部隊；《華爾街日報》與伊朗國際廣播電台指出，若全部增兵計畫獲批，區域美軍總數可能再增加逾 1.7 萬人。
海軍陸戰隊、陸軍步兵與第 82 空降師逾 1,000 名士兵已處於待命狀態；兩棲攻擊艦「的黎波里」號（USS Tripoli）攜帶 3,500 名人員進入責任區，均已準備好執行可能的地面作戰任務。
《華盛頓郵報》3 月 28 日報道，五角大廈策劃人員正在擬定對哈爾格島（負責處理伊朗約 90% 的石油出口）及霍爾木茲海峽沿海設施實施有限地面突襲的緊急方案，涉及特種作戰部隊與步兵的協同突擊行動。然而，這些仍屬應變計畫範疇，尚未達到行動命令層級，亦未獲最高層批准。
Polymarket 合約數據：三個時間窗口的機率分布
（來源：Polymarket）
Polymarket 平台上的伊朗地面戰合約已成為目前交易量最大的地緣政治預測標的之一，各時間窗口的市場定價如下：
3 月 31 日前進入伊朗：機率 13%，對應合約交易量達 3,450 萬美元
4 月 30 日前進入伊朗：機率 71%
12 月 31 日前進入伊朗：機率 78%
3 月 31 日的短期合約單獨貢獻了 3,450 萬美元的交易量，反映出大量資本正在押注極短期地面行動的可能性。平台評論區顯示，交易者密切追蹤特種部隊的動向；部分大宗交易被歸因於單一帳戶的集中操作，引發業界對非公開信息利用的關注。過去數週，伊朗相關預測市場合約已因可能存在與空襲時機掛鉤的信息不對稱交易而受到審查，但截至目前尚無正式調查結果公布。
德黑蘭的雙重回應：戰場警告與市場操控指控
伊朗議會議長穆罕默德·巴格爾·加利巴夫（Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf）在 X 平台上提出兩項警告：在軍事層面，他表示伊朗部隊正在「等待地面部隊進入，以便將其付之一炬」；在市場層面，他指控圍繞伊美衝突的頭條新聞屬於「蓄意設局」，旨在讓特定參與者在市場行情形成前搶先獲益，並敦促交易者採取逆勢操作策略——利好頭條推高價格時做空，利空頭條引發暴跌時做多。
目前，通過巴基斯坦作為第三方中介的外交談判管道正在秘密推進，衝突能否在地面行動命令正式下達前通過外交途徑化解，仍是市場最密切關注的核心變數。
常見問題
截至目前，美軍是否已有人員進入伊朗境內？
根據截至 2026 年 3 月 29 日的可靠報道，尚無確認美軍人員進入伊朗境內。現有部署仍屬於中東區域內的兵力集結及五角大廈緊急預案制定階段，行動命令尚未獲批。
Polymarket 上的伊朗相關合約是否存在市場操控風險？
伊朗相關預測市場合約在過去數週因可能存在與空襲時機掛鉤的信息不對稱交易而受到業界關注。部分大額單筆交易被歸因於個人帳戶，引發對非公開信息利用的疑慮，但截至目前尚無正式調查結果公布，相關審查仍在進行中。
哈爾格島對伊朗石油出口的戰略意義為何？
哈爾格島負責處理伊朗約 90% 的石油出口，是其能源基礎設施最核心的節點。若突襲行動成功，將直接切斷伊朗的主要石油收入來源，對全球油價與能源市場構成即時且重大的衝擊，霍爾木茲海峽的航運安全亦將同步面臨更高風險。
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