Gate News 消息，3 月 13 日，北京时间今晚 8 点 30 分，美国将公布 1 月 PCE 物价指数。市场预计 PCE 数据将同比上涨 2.9%，与前值一致，环比上升 0.3%，较上个月的 0.4% 有所放缓。核心方面，市场预计核心 PCE 物价指数同比增速将小幅加速至 3.1%，创自 2024 年 4 月以来的最大增幅，环比增幅保持在 0.4% 不变。
作为美国经济分析局的核心数据，PCE 物价指数在几个价格类别上直接引用了 CPI 的数据。在最新 CPI 数据出炉后，经济学家们迅速上调了对将于 4 月 9 日公布的 2 月份核心 PCE 物价指数的预测。几位经济学家预计该指数将连续第二个月上涨 0.4%，还有一些人预期涨幅可能更大。
这种分歧源于每种通胀指标对特定项目的权重分配方式不同。由美国劳工统计局编制的 CPI 极其看重住房成本，其中一项被称为「主要居所租金」的关键指标自 1 月份以来仅上涨了 0.1%，为五年来的最低水平。同时，CPI 还赋予了二手车价格更高的权重，而二手车价格目前已经连续三个月下跌。
另一方面，PCE 物价指标则更加看重某些特定的商品成本。经济学家指出，像计算机软件和珠宝这类产品在 2 月份的 CPI 中都出现了显著上涨，而它们对 PCE 通胀的影响力更大。巴克莱、摩根士丹利和美国银行的预测人士预计，2 月份 PCE 核心商品价格将上涨至少 0.8%，这是最新 CPI 报告中所显示增幅的 10 倍。此外，在衡量美国消费者面临的物价水平的两个主要指标上，出现了一个现象：那个几乎总是比 CPI 数据表现得更为「温和」的 PCE 数据如今却在大幅升温。
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