受美伊衝突推升油價與通膨預期，加上交易員大量軋空帶動，Circle 股價單月暴漲 87%。然而分析師透過估值模型與市銷率評估，警告其目前股價已嚴重被高估。
Circle股價單月暴漲87%，美伊戰爭助攻？
穩定幣 USDC 發行商 Circle（股票代碼：CRCL）股價在昨晚（3/9）上漲約 10%，過去一個月累計飆升 87.18%，雖然低於去年 IPO 的高峰，但驚人的漲幅仍引發市場關注。
瑞穗銀行指出，Circle 股價反彈的原因，是反映了中東緊張局勢升級引發的油價跳漲。
**自 2 月 28 日波斯灣爆發衝突以來，西德州中級原油價格已飆升約 35%。**瑞穗銀行分析，高油價可能重新引發通膨壓力，降低市場對美國聯準會降息的預期，限制央行降低利率的能力。
在其他條件不變下，穩定幣發行商能從較高利率環境中受惠，代表其投資的美元儲備能獲得更高殖利率。
圖源：Google
交易員部位調整才是關鍵？
交易員部位調整也對股價飆升發揮關鍵作用。雖然 Circle 第四季財報顯示 USDC 供應量穩健成長，但分析師認為股價大幅波動主要反映財報發布前擁擠的做空交易。
10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 對外媒《CoinDesk》表示，交易員部位調整才是推動這波漲勢的真正催化劑，頭條新聞的數據影響相對有限。
他的數據顯示，**避險基金在財報前已累積大量看跌部位，這單純創造了高機率的軋空行情，缺乏基本面的重新評估。**FactSet 數據指出，目前放空比例約占流通股 13%，約需兩天時間回補。
延伸閱讀：
韓亞銀行聯手Circle與交易所！測試南韓USDC支付，消費可享5%回饋
Circle股價高估還是低估？
至於 Circle 目前股價是否處在高估狀態，分析師 Bailey Pemberton 透過以下兩種方法進行分析：
現金流折現模型
Pemberton 使用現金流折現模型進行估值，透過預測未來現金流並將其折現回現值，來計算企業當前價值。
針對 Circle，模型採用兩階段股權自由現金流方法。Circle 過去 12 個月自由現金流約為 3.36 億美元，分析師預測到 2030 年將達到 6.289 億美元。
將這些折現後的預測值與終值相加，得出每股估計內在價值為 42.25 美元。對比目前 111.84 美元的股價，股票比估值高出 164.7%，顯示其價格明顯被高估。
圖源：Bailey Pemberton現金流折現模型估值，透過預測未來現金流並將其折現回現值，來計算企業當前價值。
市銷率
Pemberton 接著檢視了市銷率，這項指標衡量投資人為每一美元銷售額支付的價格。
Circle 目前的市銷率為 9.67 倍，目前軟體產業的平均市銷率為 3.56 倍，Circle 同業平均為 9.00 倍，顯示其定價偏高。
考量到 Circle 獲利成長、利潤率與風險特徵等因素，分析師評估 Circle 的合理市銷率應為 3.97 倍。對比實際的 9.67 倍，這項指標同樣顯示該股票價格昂貴且具高估風險。
圖源：Bailey Pemberton市銷率指標衡量投資人為每一美元銷售額支付的價格
本篇內容由加密 Agent 匯總各方資訊生成、《加密城市》審稿與編輯，目前仍處於培訓階段，可能存在邏輯偏差或資訊誤差，內容僅供參考，請勿視為投資建議。
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Articoli correlati
USDC Treasury Mints 200M USDC on Ethereum, Worth ~$199.9M
Summary: USDC Treasury minted 200M USDC on Ethereum at 22:00 UTC; worth about $199.9M, per Whale Alert.
Abstract: A Gate News update reports that the USDC Treasury minted 200 million USDC on the Ethereum network at 22:00 UTC, with Whale Alert corroborating the mint. The new supply is valued at roughly $199.9 million, illustrating a substantial increase in USDC issuance.
GateNews2h fa
RedotPay Integrates Sui and USDC-Sui, Expanding Payments to 100+ Countries
RedotPay now supports SUI and USDC-Sui on the Sui network, enabling faster global payments for 130M merchants and 7M customers, with scalable cross-border transactions bridging crypto and commerce.
Abstract: RedotPay has added support for SUI and USDC-Sui on the Sui network, enabling seamless payment processing and global payouts across its ecosystem. Serving more than 130 million merchants in over 100 countries and about 7 million customers, the platform aims to offer faster, more scalable cross-border payments and broader blockchain-enabled financial access. By integrating SUI and USDC-Sui, RedotPay seeks to simplify sending and receiving payments worldwide while ensuring secure, efficient transactions that bridge digital assets with real-world commerce.
GateNews9h fa
Whale Deposits $2M USDC to Hyperliquid, Buys 50,080 HYPE at $39.94 Average
Gate News message, April 22 — According to Onchain Lens, a whale deposited 2 million USDC to Hyperliquid and purchased 50,080 HYPE at an average price of $39.94 per token.
GateNews11h fa
Volo Protocol 金庫遭攻擊損失 350 萬，剩餘 TVL 確認安全
Sui 生態系統協議 Volo 在 X 平台發布聲明，確認發生安全漏洞，導致 3 個特定金庫中約 350 萬美元資產被盜，涉及 WBTC、XAUm 及 USDC。Volo 表示已在檢測到攻擊後立即通知 Sui 基金會及生態系統合作夥伴，凍結所有金庫以防止進一步損失；Volo 承諾承擔全部損失，不讓用戶承擔任何責任。
MarketWhisper15h fa
BIS Warns Dollar-Denominated Stablecoins Like USDT and USDC Pose Financial Stability Risk
Gate News message, April 21 — The Bank for International Payments (BIS) has reiterated concerns about stablecoins, with Managing Director Pablo Hernandez de Cos warning that dollar-denominated stablecoins such as USDT and USDC are fundamentally riskier than commonly perceived.
Cos stated that
GateNews04-21 09:41
