Gate News 消息,3 月 8 日,华尔街日报记者 Nick Timiraos(被称为「美联储传声筒」)发文分析称,周五公布的就业报告使美联储在对抗通胀与保护就业之间的两难困境进一步加剧。
Timiraos 援引明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利(Neel Kashkari)的警告指出,当前国际局势可能正在成为俄乌冲突的「翻版」,并提醒美联储不要重蹈 2021 年判定通胀为暂时性上升的失误。卡什卡利今年在 FOMC 会议中拥有投票权。
对于美联储下一步政策走向,Timiraos 判断:目前美联储官员可能只会静观其变。他指出,美联储主席鲍威尔去年底曾三次敦促降息,但每次都在 FOMC 12 人利率决策委员会内部引发越来越大的争议。官员们已明确表示,不急于在本月晚些时候的会议上调整利率,即使一个月的数据令人担忧,也不太可能动摇这一立场。
Timiraos 进一步分析,若未来几个月失业率继续上升,美联储可能会在今年年中重启降息;但若通胀数据在此之前再度抬头,内部阻力将明显上升。他总结称,一个同时面临就业走软与通胀风险重燃的央行「几乎没有什么好选择」。
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