3月6日消息,以色列财政部最新估算显示,当前与伊朗的冲突每周可能造成约90亿谢克尔(约29.3亿美元)的经济损失,相当于约41,300枚比特币(假设比特币价格约7万美元)。如果采取较宽松的“橙色”限制措施,每周损失将降至约43亿谢克尔(约13.5亿美元),折合18,000枚比特币。
财政部指出,这些损失不仅包括军事开支,还反映了国内经济在学校停课、旅行限制和公共服务缩减等限制措施下的停摆程度。以色列在冲突前经济增长保持稳健,预计2025年增长率为3.1%,2026年在加沙地带停火后有望延续增长势头,但长期严格限制可能逆转部分增长。
比特币作为全球交易活跃且全天候交易的数字资产,被用作衡量战争经济损失的标准工具。每周41,300枚比特币的损失超过比特币网络约13周的新币供应量,也远超典型大型机构ETF的吸纳规模。这表明经济影响在数字资产维度下极具可比性。若以色列持有这些比特币,其储备量将位列全球前五,仅次于乌克兰。
分析人士表示,这一估算为市场提供了量化冲击视角,同时凸显了战争对投资者信心和资产流动性的潜在影响。随着限制措施持续,四周累计损失可能达到约165,000枚比特币,远超新发行量和ETF吸收量,显示经济停摆可能对金融市场和加密货币生态产生深远影响。
尽管以色列尚未建立比特币储备,当地加密货币市场仍稳步增长。2024年至2025年间,资本流入超过7130亿美元,显示出在地缘政治紧张背景下,数字资产市场仍具有韧性和避险属性。
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