2026-03-15 14:36:35

Circle Position Liquidation Record and Cause Analysis

Trading Operations:
Liquidated Circle positions in two tranches at 83 and 112.

Personal reasons for liquidation (all subjective views):
1. Disconnect between narrative and reality:
Circle's recent surge is driven by the AI Agent payment narrative, but AI Agent payment business is still in a very early stage. The issuance volume of stablecoin USDC being truly driven by AI Agent trading volume is impossible without 2-3 years. What's being traded now is just optimistic expectations about AI.

2. Market positioning limitations:
Stablecoin payments are only a niche market for AI Agents. Stablecoin payments will mainly be used in cross-border scenarios, whereas for AI Agents, local payment scenarios are the largest opportunity. The most rational way for local payments is combining fiat currency + local applications. Cross-border Agent payment scenarios are not the main problems being solved currently.

3. Excessive valuation:
Circle's current market cap has reached $28 billion, which is too expensive compared to net profits of over $100 million annually. I believe the current price already reflects the valuation at a time when USDC issuance volume increases 10 times over.

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