Tenure US Treasury yield today reached 4.209 %, the highest level since early September.

Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, and the dot plot will be released together. The market consensus is now clear—cutting rates by 25 basis points is probably inevitable. But that’s not the issue here.

What really makes traders uneasy is how “conservative” the Fed’s future statements will be.

TD Securities’ assessment is quite crucial: the Federal Reserve is likely to send a signal—whether to cut or not later depends on data. In other words, don’t expect them to paint a big picture, promising “continuous easing” — that kind of commitment is unlikely to happen.

They also mentioned that even if the yield on US Treasuries continues to rise after the decision, there is limited room, and it will likely fall back slightly soon.

What does this mean? The market’s desire for a “clear and sustained easing signal” won’t be fulfilled this time. Yields will fluctuate, but won’t spiral out of control. Risk assets may see some volatility after the decision, but probably not for long.

In plain language, what’s making everyone nervous now isn’t how much interest rates have risen, but the gap between expectations and reality.