Recent market Unfavourable Information summary: AI bubble dominates US stock rise and fall, ETF sees record outflows intensifying market dumping, and the prospect of interest rate cuts in December is highly uncertain.

On November 22, after Bitcoin faced a continuous dumping since its historical high on October 7, the maximum drop exceeded 35% within 46 days, almost falling below the 80,000 USD mark yesterday, leading the entire crypto market to experience a downward movement for several days, resulting in significant losses. It has now slightly rebounded to around 85,000 USD. Recently, the risk of a downturn in the global financial market has intensified, with the AI bubble debate dominating the fluctuations of the US stock market. The US government's record “shutdown” has led to the postponement of various important macroeconomic data releases, with liquidity sharply shrinking, and the probability of a rate cut in December fluctuating significantly. The specific unfavourable information is summarized as follows: · The market questions whether Nvidia's high accounts receivable can be recovered, with cash conversion rates lower than industry levels. At the same time, funds from multiple AI companies have been recycled, with some transactions double-counted as revenue. Several investment institutions have dumped Nvidia stocks, with the AI bubble suppressing the US stock market for an extended period, leading to an overall market downturn. Last night, Fed officials were bullish on AI, and Nvidia's CEO spoke to clarify concerns about the AI bubble, causing a rebound in the US stock market; · BlackRock's IBIT experienced a record outflow of 523 million USD in a single day on the 19th of this month, with a massive net outflow exceeding 2.5 billion USD this month, creating the highest record of market capitalization evaporation over consecutive trading days. Analysts state that retail investors in the US stock market are dumping spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which is a major selling pressure on the crypto market, severely impacting native crypto users; · The US government has just ended a record 43-day shutdown, during which several important economic and employment data releases were paused. In September, non-farm employment unexpectedly increased by 119,000. The Fed's hawkish stance on persistent inflation has led to significant fluctuations in the probability of a rate cut in December, which has fallen from an initial high of 70% (25 BP) to 30%, with traders once betting that the market would not cut rates in December. Early this morning, several Fed officials collectively “dove” again, raising the probability of a rate cut to 71.3% (25 BP), reigniting bets on a rate cut.