Trump's approval rating falls to a historic low, and the stance on Crypto Assets monetary policy faces a test.

The latest YouGov poll on November 25 shows that President Trump’s net approval rating has fallen to negative 19%, with only 38% of respondents approving of his performance, while the disapproval rating is as high as 57%. This data marks a new low in his political career, even lower than the level during his first term. Meanwhile, two Democratic senators are pushing for an investigation into the cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial associated with the Trump family, questioning its financial dealings with North Korean hackers and Iranian exchanges, which casts a shadow over his campaign promise to “make America a crypto capital.”

In-Depth Analysis of Polling Data: Economic and Political Factors Behind the Decline in Support Rates

The national survey released by YouGov on November 25 reveals the structural weaknesses in Trump's approval ratings. The net support rate of negative 19% is not only significantly lower than the negative 7% during his first term but also breaks the historical trend of sitting presidents having higher support rates in their second terms compared to their first. From the segmented data, the most severe loss in support comes from independent voters, which has dropped from 45% during the 2024 election to the current 31%. This departure of moderate voters may directly affect his ability to push forward subsequent policies.

(Source: YouGov)

Economic issues have become a key driving factor behind the decline in approval ratings. Surveys show that respondents' approval of Trump’s handling of economic issues dropped by 12 percentage points compared to last month, marking the largest single-month fall since the first quarter of 2025. This change is directly related to the ongoing 43-day government shutdown—according to estimates by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the shutdown has resulted in about 60,000 private sector employees losing their jobs, with this impact being particularly significant in the service and construction industries. Notably, although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.0%, the consumer confidence index has declined for three consecutive months.

From the analysis of the population structure, the support rate of Latino voters has decreased the most, by 15 percentage points, closely related to the recent tightening of immigration policies. At the same time, the support rate of young voters aged 18-29 also dropped from 41% during the election to 33%, reflecting the dissatisfaction of the new generation of voters with the government shutdown and climate change policies. If this multidimensional loss of support continues, it may affect the Republican Party's situation in the 2026 midterm elections, thereby changing the balance of power in Congress.

Compared to historical periods, Trump's current governance dilemma has both uniqueness and universality. Compared to former President Obama's second term, Trump's economic indicators actually perform stronger (GDP growth rate of 3.2% vs. 2.1%), but the degree of social division is deeper. This contrast indicates that in the era of social media, the correlation between traditional economic performance and approval ratings is weakening, with factors such as culture wars and identity politics gaining greater weight.

Key poll data compared to history

Net support rate: -19% (the same period in the first term was -7%)

Overall support rate: 38% (the same period of the first term was 45%)

Disapproval rate: 57% (compared to 50% during the first term)

Economic handling approval rate: decreased by 12% month-on-month.

Independent voter support rate: 31% (45% during the election)

Support rate of young voters: 33% (41% during the election)

Crypto Assets Policy Dilemma: The Gap Between Campaign Promises and Regulatory Realities

Trump's slogan of “Making America a Crypto Capital” proposed during the 2024 campaign is facing severe challenges. Last week, Senator Elizabeth Warren (Democrat from Massachusetts) and Jack Reed (Democrat from Rhode Island) jointly wrote to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet, requesting an investigation into the World Liberty Financial platform for alleged financial transactions with North Korean hackers and Iranian exchanges. This move puts the Trump family's connection to the crypto industry under the spotlight and may affect the formulation of its government's crypto policy.

According to a report released in September 2025 by the non-profit oversight organization Accountable.US, World Liberty Financial sold tokens to dozens of suspicious buyers, who had interactions with major money laundering platforms, Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges, and even North Korean hacker organizations. The report sharply questioned: “Why is the Trump family's encryption company receiving funds from individuals and networks with clear ties to America's open enemies?” This question resonated in the Democrat-controlled Senate and could push for stricter Crypto Assets regulatory legislation.

The response strategy of the Trump administration presents a dilemma. On one hand, Treasury Secretary Basant has recently emphasized that “the U.S. must maintain its leadership in digital asset innovation,” but on the other hand, the Department of Justice's continued crackdown on the crypto mixer Tornado Cash shows that regulatory attitudes have not relaxed. The contradiction in these policy signals makes it difficult for the crypto industry to form stable expectations, and some project teams have begun to shift their operations to more clearly regulated jurisdictions such as Dubai and Singapore.

From the perspective of political donation data, the crypto industry provided approximately $120 million in funding to Trump’s camp and Republican-related political action committees during the 2024 election cycle, setting a record for the industry. However, with support ratings declining and regulatory pressures increasing, whether this political investment can yield corresponding returns is in question. Especially if the Democratic Party expands its Senate advantage in the 2026 midterm elections, the currently relatively lenient crypto regulatory framework may face reassessment.

Government Shutdown Aftermath: Economic Impact and Analysis of the Relationship with the Crypto Market

The 43-day government shutdown not only set a record for the longest in U.S. history, but its economic impact is also gradually becoming apparent. In addition to the direct loss of 60,000 private sector jobs, the shutdown has delayed the approval of about $120 billion in infrastructure spending, which includes several blockchain and digital asset-related projects. This delay could further hinder the U.S. in key areas such as central bank digital currency research, putting it further behind competitors like China and the European Union.

The crypto market has shown significant safe-haven properties during the shutdown period. According to CoinMetrics data, in the sixth week of the shutdown, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index dropped to 0.12, the lowest level since 2023. At the same time, the spot trading volume of U.S. users on major CEXs increased by 35%, indicating that some investors view crypto assets as a hedge against political uncertainty. This pattern is similar to the performance during the 2018-2019 shutdown period, but on a larger scale.

The government shutdown has directly impacted the Crypto Assets regulatory system. During this period, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have suspended several rule-making processes, including the highly anticipated digital asset custody rules and the regulatory framework for decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. This regulatory vacuum could last until the first quarter of 2026, creating a window of opportunity filled with both chances and risks for market participants.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the economic growth slowdown caused by the shutdown may actually strengthen the fundamentals of the crypto market. Historical data indicates that in the three quarters following the end of a government shutdown, the probability of the Federal Reserve adopting an expansionary monetary policy increases by an average of 40%. If this pattern re-emerges, the improvement in the liquidity environment may partially offset the pressures brought about by regulatory uncertainty, creating a more favorable macro backdrop for the crypto market.

Historical Comparison Perspective: Analysis of Trump's Approval Rating Evolution During His Two Terms

By comparing key indicators during Trump's two terms, we can clearly see the evolution of his governing foundation. In the 11th month of his first term, his approval rating remained around 45%, and the economic handling approval reached 52%, while the current figures are 38% and 41%, respectively. This decline is not an exception—except for George W. Bush, who saw an increase in approval ratings due to the war on terror, most re-elected presidents have lower approval ratings in their second terms than in their first, but Trump's decline is particularly pronounced.

From the perspective of policy advancement capability, the decline in support has begun to have a substantive impact. During his first term, Trump passed 42 pieces of legislation in Congress, while only 28 have been passed so far in the current term. Especially in the area of crypto legislation, the “Digital Asset Market Structure Bill” originally scheduled for a vote this month has been postponed until 2026, and this delay directly undermines the credibility of his “crypto capital” commitment. The Republican leadership in Congress has begun to adjust their strategy, focusing more on neutral issues that can gain bipartisan support.

International comparisons provide another perspective. Among the leaders of the G7, Trump's current approval rating is only higher than that of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and lower than that of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This relative decline in international status may affect his ability to promote the establishment of global Crypto Assets regulatory standards, especially in key forums such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Analyzing the electoral cycle patterns, the approval ratings of a second-term president in the 11th month typically predict the results of the midterm elections. If the current trend continues, the Republican Party may lose 3-5 House seats and 1-2 Senate seats in 2026. This outlook has begun to influence the lobbying strategies of the crypto industry, with some major exchanges increasing political donations to moderate Democrats in preparation for potential power shifts.

Crypto Assets Market Reaction and Policy Outlook

Despite rising political uncertainty, the crypto market has shown unexpected resilience. Within 24 hours of the poll results being released, the price of Bitcoin actually rose by 1.2%, and Ethereum increased by 2.3%. This counterintuitive movement may reflect two judgments from the market: first, that Trump's declining approval ratings will not immediately change the existing crypto regulatory framework; second, that political pressure may force the government to accelerate policies favorable to the crypto industry in order to attract young voters.

From the regulatory agenda perspective, the next six months will welcome several key milestones. The term of Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Krishna Srinivasan will end in January 2026, and the choice of his successor may redefine the standards for classifying the commodity attributes of tokens. At the same time, the Securities and Exchange Commission's regulatory guidelines for decentralized exchanges are expected to be released in the second quarter of next year. These policy milestones will significantly impact the direction of industry development.

Geopolitical factors are playing a new role in the encryption regulatory debate. With China's rapid advancement in the central bank digital currency space and the comprehensive implementation of the EU's crypto assets market legislation (MiCA), U.S. policymakers are facing increasing competitive pressure. This international context may prompt the Trump administration to adopt a more proactive policy towards the crypto industry, even if only for geopolitical strategic considerations rather than inherent endorsement.

From an investment strategy perspective, increased political uncertainty is usually accompanied by rising volatility. Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has risen from 35% in October to the current 42%, and this trend may continue until around the mid-term elections in 2026. Investors are advised to increase hedge positions, focusing on infrastructure tokens that have lower correlation with regulatory outcomes, such as blockchain interoperability protocols and decentralized storage projects.

The U.S. crypto regulation stands at a historical crossroads. As Trump's approval ratings continue to decline, the path to realizing his “crypto capital” vision has become more complicated. Political winds change rapidly and are hard to predict, but the evolution of blockchain technology has maintained its own pace. Perhaps it is this mismatch between political cycles and technological cycles that provides astute observers with the most unique investment perspective - distinguishing substantial innovations that can navigate through political tumult amid uncertainty.