Gate Latest Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (November 18): Bitcoin fell below 92,000, is there a chance for a rebound?

On November 18, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reported at $91,836.30, with a price range of $91,202.90 to $96,188.80. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index showed 11, indicating an “extreme fear” state, and the low market sentiment may contain reversal opportunities. Altcoins showed divergent performance, with GET experiencing a big pump of 60.66%. Market outlook indicates a 50% probability of a volatile market and a 30% probability of a bull run.

Market Core Performance: BTC drops below 92000, ETH trading volume hits all-time high

Bitcoin (BTC) current price is $91,836.3, with a 24-hour price change of -0.4%, and a price range of $91,202.9 - $96,188.8. Key features indicate continuous institutional investment, with listed companies holding over 1 million coins. Technically, Bitcoin is oscillating around $110,000, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is intensifying. From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has retraced over 27% from the historical high of $126,000 in October, and the current price is in a key support area.

Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume is $1.495 billion, indicating that market liquidity remains abundant. Although the price has fallen, the trading volume has not shown panic selling, suggesting that the current decline is more of a technical adjustment rather than a collapse caused by a deterioration in fundamentals. The continued buying by institutional investors provides bottom support for Bitcoin, with companies like MicroStrategy holding over 1 million coins. This “diamond hands” institutional buying has, to some extent, mitigated the impact of retail panic selling.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at $3,025.99, with a 24-hour price change of -0.18%, and a price range of $2,959.54-$3,223.22. Key features show that spot trading volume has surpassed BTC for the first time, and ecological activity has increased. This is a significant event in cryptocurrency market analysis, as Ethereum's trading volume surpassing Bitcoin is extremely rare in history, usually marking the beginning of market funds rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum and other smart contract platforms.

The 24-hour trading volume of Ethereum is $709 million. Although the absolute value is lower than Bitcoin, considering that the price of Ethereum is only about 3% of Bitcoin, its trading volume actually accounts for a higher proportion of its market value. Technically, Ethereum is oscillating around $4,300, and the market is paying attention to the capital flow situation in September. If Ethereum can break through the resistance level of $4,300, it may initiate a new round of bullish trend.

Mainstream Coin Core Data Comparison

Bitcoin: Price 91,836.3 USD, 24h Trading Volume 1.495 Billion USD, Institutional Holdings over 1 Million Coins

Ethereum: Price 3,025.99 USD, 24h trading volume 709 million USD, trading volume surpasses BTC for the first time.

Alts Strongly Erupt: GET Big Pump 60% Leads

The performance of alts shows significant differentiation, with some small-cap coins experiencing explosive pumps. GET's current price is $0.0035, with a 24-hour pump of 60.66% and a trading volume of $11,000. REKTCOIN's current price is $0.0000002321, with a 24-hour pump of 46.55% and a trading volume of $506,000. BAKED's current price is $0.0006528, with a 24-hour pump of 43% and a trading volume of $11,000.

The collective explosion of this altcoin holds significant meaning in cryptocurrency market analysis. When the prices of mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are under pressure, funds often flow into high-risk, high-reward small-cap coins in search of excess returns. The 60.66% big pump of GET indicates that market speculation remains active, despite the overall fear index reaching an extreme fear level of 11, some funds are still looking for explosive opportunities.

However, investors must be wary of the high-risk characteristics of alts. The trading volumes of GET, REKTCOIN, and BAKED are extremely low, with GET and BAKED having a daily trading volume of only $11,000. This extremely low liquidity means that prices can be easily manipulated. A small amount of buying can cause a big pump in price, and similarly, a small sell-off can lead to a price crash. The big pumps of these coins are more due to speculative hype rather than improvements in fundamentals.

Fear and Greed Index 11, Extreme Fear Contains Reversal Opportunity

(Source: Gate)

Gate technical indicators show that the Bitcoin fear and greed index is at 11, indicating an “extreme fear” state. The Fear and Greed Index is a comprehensive indicator measuring cryptocurrency market sentiment, ranging from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). The current reading of 11 shows that market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with investors exiting in large numbers and selling pressure reaching its peak.

However, in cryptocurrency market analysis, extreme fear is often a contrarian indicator. Historical data shows that when the Fear & Greed Index drops below 15, it often signals that the market bottom is approaching. This is because extreme fear means that most weak hands have already been flushed out, and the selling pressure has been fully released. At this point, any positive news could trigger a strong rebound. Multiple market bottoms, such as in March 2020 and November 2022, were accompanied by the Fear & Greed Index dropping to extremely low levels.

Market sentiment is sluggish, which may imply a reversal opportunity. Volatility is at a low level, and the market is expected to remain stable in the short term. BTC's 24-hour trading volume is $1.495 billion, and ETH's 24-hour trading volume is $709 million, indicating good market liquidity and ample trading depth. Price fluctuations are relatively mild, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. This kind of low volatility environment typically occurs before a trend is about to reverse, similar to the calm before a storm.

Short-term Trading Strategies and Position Management Suggestions

For short-term trading strategies, it is recommended to enter BTC in the range of 91,200 - 92,000 USD, and for ETH, the entry range is suggested to be 2,950 - 3,050 USD. For take profit and stop loss, set BTC to ±5% and ETH to ±7%. Position management is recommended to use 10 - 15% of total capital, with a risk rating of medium risk.

This conservative position management strategy is based on the high uncertainty of the current market. Although the panic index reaching extreme panic levels may imply a reversal opportunity, investors should remain cautious until the reversal signal is truly confirmed. A position allocation of 10-15% means that even if a misjudgment leads to further declines, the losses remain within a controllable range.

In terms of mid-term investment layout, the trend judgment is mainly based on震盪調整, cautiously bullish. The allocation suggestion is 60% BTC and 40% ETH. Key points to pay attention to are SEC regulatory policies and institutional investment trends. Scenario analysis shows that in a bull run scenario, the allocation of top coins should be increased, while in a bear market scenario, liquidity should be maintained and position sizes controlled.

Investment Strategy Recommendations Summary

Short-term entry points: BTC 91,200-92,000 USD, ETH 2,950-3,050 USD

Take Profit and Stop Loss: BTC ±5%, ETH ±7%

Position Management: Total Capital 10-15%

Medium-term allocation: BTC 60%, ETH 40%

Risk Rating: Medium Risk

Market outlook shows a bull run probability of 30%, bear market probability of 20%, and a sideways market probability of 50%. Catalytic events include the SEC regulatory framework and institutional investment trends. The time frame is expected to gradually clarify the market landscape within 1-3 months. This expectation of a sideways market aligns with current technical and sentiment indicators, and investors should be mentally prepared for mid-term consolidation.

Risk Warning and Key Catalysts

Core risk identification includes systemic risk (global macroeconomic uncertainty), individual coin risk (regulatory policy changes), liquidity risk (market sentiment may change rapidly), and regulatory risk (SEC strengthening cryptocurrency regulation). These risk factors may have a significant impact on the market in the next 1-3 months.

In terms of systematic risk, the uncertainty of the global macroeconomy still hangs over the cryptocurrency market like the sword of Damocles. The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the performance of U.S. economic data, and geopolitical risks may significantly impact cryptocurrency market analysis. Regarding regulatory risk, although the SEC's attitude towards cryptocurrency softened under the Trump administration, the specific regulatory framework has not yet been fully clarified, and this uncertainty will continue to affect market sentiment.