Gate Daily (October 13): Trump unexpectedly reverses course on China tariffs; USD depeg triggers $1 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its strong rebound over the weekend, temporarily reporting around 115,244 USD on October 13. The impact of Trump's tariffs has significantly cooled down, as representatives from China and the US hint at a easing of trade tensions, with China expressing willingness to negotiate on the rare earth issue. The USDe depeg incident shocked the market, with prices plummeting from 1 USD to 0.65 USD, triggering a liquidation wave of 1 billion USD.

Today's Outlook

1. China's October trade balance (billion USD), previous value was 102.30

2. China's M2 money supply (year-on-year) at the end of September is 8.8%.

3. China's September trade balance (billion USD), previous value was 150.70

4. China's September trade balance (billion USD), previous value was 102.30

5. China's October trade balance (in billion yuan), previous value was 150.70

6, China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of September (in billion USD), previous value was 3322.15

7, The change in non-farm payroll employment in the U.S. for September (thousands), the previous value was 22

8. The unemployment rate in the United States for September was 4.3%.

9. U.S. August trade balance (billion USD), previous value was -78.3

10. The seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States last week (in thousands) (up to 1004) were 229, the previous value.

11. The World Bank and IMF will hold the 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting, and by October 18, world financial leaders will gather here.

12. OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report.

13, Japan Sports Day holiday market closure

14. Canadian Thanksgiving holiday market closure

Macroeconomic Events & Coin Circle Hotspots

1. Due to China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals and President Trump announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese products, tensions between China and the United States escalated last week. However, the intense debate between representatives of the two countries over trade policy has somewhat eased. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated on October 12 that it is willing to negotiate on the proposal for rare earth export controls and other trade issues, while Trump also issued a statement. In an article posted on the "Truth Social" social media platform, Trump wrote: "Don't worry about China, everything will be fine! China is just in a bad mood. He doesn't want his country to fall into economic recession, and neither do I. The United States wants to help China, not hurt it!!!" Market analysts say that signs of Trump easing tensions may boost the financial markets this week, reversing the trend of falling cryptocurrency prices over the weekend.

2. The USDe depeg event shocked the market, with the price falling from 1 USD to 0.65 USD, triggering a liquidation wave of 1 billion USD. Guy Young, the founder of Ethena, revealed that the root cause of the USDe depeg lies in the oracle issue of the exchange, rather than the protocol itself. Analysts question whether the USDe depeg was a carefully planned coordinated attack, and Ethena is promoting reserve proof reforms to rebuild trust.

3. Cryptocurrency market analyst Mister Crypto stated that Bitcoin is re-testing the "golden cross", which is a bullish technical pattern that historically precedes price increases. In an article on October 12, this analyst shared a chart indicating that the previous golden crosses for Bitcoin (BTC) led to a 2,200% increase in 2017 and a 1,190% increase in 2020. Since BTC is currently hovering around $110,000, he noted that staying above this level could trigger another parabolic move. He wrote: "This setup looks very strong," adding that once a breakout is confirmed, Bitcoin's price could absolutely explode in the coming weeks.

Market Trend

1. Latest news on Bitcoin: $BTC continues the strong rebound from the weekend, currently reported at around 115,244 USD, with a liquidation of 128 million USD in the past 24 hours, mainly from short positions;

2. The U.S. stock market suffered a severe crash on October 10, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 878.82 points, or 1.90%, at 45479.60 points. The S&P 500 index fell by 182.60 points, or 2.71%, closing at 6552.51 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropped 820.20 points, or 3.56%, finishing at 22204.43 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 432.602 points, or 6.32%, ending at 6407.602 points.

(Source: Gate)

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 115,133.40 USDT, if it falls to around 110,387 USD, the total liquidation amount for long positions exceeds 1.1 billion USD; if it rises to around 116,157 USD, the total liquidation amount for short positions exceeds 165 million USD. The liquidation amount for shorts is significantly lower than that for longs, so it is advisable to reasonably control the leverage ratio to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was 4.32 billion USD, outflow was 3.83 billion USD, with a net outflow of 490 million USD.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $ETH, $BTC, $SOL, $COAI, and $ADA have seen net outflows leading to trading opportunities.

News Updates

1. The total supply of stablecoins has risen to a historic high of $301.5 billion.

2. Microsoft Defender has a vulnerability that allows authentication bypass and the uploading of malicious files.

3. Forbes: Trump is one of the largest Bitcoin investors in the United States, holding approximately 870 million USD in Bitcoin.

4. The ancient giant whale of Bitcoin, who has made a high-profile switch to ETH, is once again shorting 1423 BTC.

5. A certain whale went long on 770 BTC on Hyperliquid, with an opening price of 111,749 USD.

6. Two addresses opened million-dollar-level long positions in ETH, SOL, and BTC.

7. Tether CEO: USDT performed steadily during the turbulence in the cryptocurrency market.

8. Michael Saylor has released Bitcoin Tracker information again, and this week may reveal the increased holding data.

9. Analysis: The impact of the "1011 flash crash" in the crypto market may take several days or even weeks to fully manifest.

10. Data: Tokens such as FTN, CONX, and ARB will experience a large unlock next week, with FTN unlocking a value of approximately 40.2 million USD.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): "I don't even know how to describe today's task. After experiencing yesterday's big dump, the current price is showing signs of gradually returning to normal. The root of all this still comes from Trump. First, he imposed an additional 100% tariff on China, and then continued to express the possibility of TACO. TACO means that Trump has been backtracking, implying that he tends to take the results very seriously. It was the same back in April regarding China. Now that the market feels there might be TACO, it starts to warm up. Otherwise, how could it be said that Trump always likes to stir things up after the last trading day before the weekend? It's the least damaging to the US stock market, and this damage is completely borne by cryptocurrencies. As of now, BTC has returned to 115,000 USD, and is even less than 2,000 USD away from the CME Friday closing price. However, the trauma inflicted on the market and the impact on investors' assets are difficult to recover. On Monday, the focus will be on whether China will have new countermeasures. If not, it is very likely that the 100% tariff on November 1 will not be implemented. Could there be a chance to find reasoning?"

"Looking back at the data for Bitcoin, although it has moved out of the downtrend, the turnover rate is still higher than normal weekends, and investor sentiment has not fully calmed down. It now feels like a frightened little bird, and it is estimated that political stability is needed for it to gradually stabilize. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's end-of-month meeting, which is still on hold. This week's PPI data is likely not going to be released, and there is a speech by Powell on Tuesday. It is uncertain whether he will address the issue of monetary policy, but it might be worth listening to. Other than that, there isn't much else; the short-term focus may still be on Trump, either related to the government shutdown, tariffs, or geopolitical conflicts."