Smart Money pension-usdt.eth’s Strategy Does 180-Degree Reversal in 24 Hours

On January 8, it just closed a 3x leveraged ETH short position for a profit of $2.75 million. On January 9, it immediately opened a 3x leveraged ETH long position with a larger scale and higher risk. What kind of market judgment does this rapid reversal reflect?

Whale’s Aggressive Reversal

According to OnchainLens monitoring, the specific details of this long position are as follows:

This position has several noteworthy characteristics:

• Scale Upgrade: Transitioning from closed short positions to a much larger long position, 20,000 ETH holdings are top-tier among on-chain whales
• Leverage Consistency: Still using 3x leverage, indicating this whale has its own risk management preferences
• Liquidation Buffer: Liquidation price of $1,607.9 is sufficiently distant from current price, approximately 48% downside cushion

Market Signals Behind It

This reversal is not an isolated event. Observing pension-usdt.eth’s recent operational trajectory:

• January 8: Closed 3x leveraged ETH short position, locking in $2.75 million profit, total gains reached $22.3 million
• January 9: Immediately reversed course, going long 20,000 ETH with 3x leverage

The rapid reversal from short to long typically reflects two possibilities: either market sentiment has shifted noticeably, or smart money has a new judgment on short-term price action.

From a broader macroeconomic perspective, sustained buying by institutional capital has also been supporting this optimistic sentiment. BlackRock recently withdrew large amounts of BTC and ETH from Coinbase, and Bitmine is continuously staking large quantities of ETH, all suggesting institutional bullishness on ETH in the medium term.

Risk and Reward Trade-off

This position’s characteristic is high risk and high reward:

• Profit Potential: Based on entry average price of $3,097.74, if ETH rises to $3,500, this position’s profit would reach approximately $24 million
• Risk Side: 3x leverage means any sharp decline quickly erodes profits, and while liquidation price of $1,607.9 provides a buffer, triggering it means total loss

From the current floating profit of $235,000, this position is already showing modest gains at current prices, giving the whale some operational space.

Key Factors for Future Direction

This long position’s performance will depend on several factors:

• Short-term Price Movement: ETH declined 1.73% in the last 24 hours, but rose 3.45% in 7 days, overall trend still needs observation
• Market Liquidity: A $62.2 million position scale means any liquidity shock could quickly push prices up or down
• Macro Environment: Whether the trend of continued institutional buying can be maintained determines the fundamental support for the long

Summary

pension-usdt.eth’s reversal reflects smart money’s optimistic judgment on ETH’s short-term price action. Transitioning from closing shorts to opening a larger-scale long position typically only happens when market sentiment or fundamentals experience noticeable changes. The 3x leverage and $62.2 million position size both demonstrate this whale’s risk tolerance and indicate considerable confidence in this judgment.

However, the double-edged sword nature of leveraged trading also means any reverse movement in this position will be amplified. From an on-chain data perspective, this operation deserves continued monitoring, as smart money’s next moves often preemptively reflect market turning signals.