Dấu hiệu chuyển hướng chính sách của Ngân hàng Trung ương Châu Âu: kỳ vọng tăng lãi suất trên thị trường gia tăng, năm 2026 trở thành khung thời gian quan trọng

【比推】European Central Bank President Lagarde’s recent speech has garnered widespread attention in the market. According to analysis from the Financial Times, investors generally expect the European Central Bank to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at 2% next week, but the real focus has shifted to the central bank’s latest assessment of the economic outlook.

Lagarde revealed this week that policymakers might raise their growth forecast for the Eurozone again at the upcoming meeting. This is crucial—more optimistic growth prospects coupled with persistent inflation pressures are prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of a rate hike by the ECB next year. You can see a noticeable increase in the implied bets on rate hikes in 2026 in the swap market, and these changes have only appeared in recent weeks.

However, there are some subtle nuances. The potential shift in the central bank’s policy stance remains a subject of debate, and since market pricing has only recently shifted, traders will pay close attention to any clues from the ECB about the timing of rate hikes. George Moran, Eurozone economist at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, believes that the ECB is unlikely to actually raise rates in 2026, as the economic tailwinds currently observed might be cyclical and not lasting. He emphasizes that the ECB has clearly stated it does not want to overreact to short-term deviations from inflation targets.

So the bottom line is: the market is betting on rate hikes, but the ECB’s stance remains cautious, and any policy signal adjustments are likely to be gradual.