Textbook-level hunting! A mysterious player exploits $BTC minute-level latency, withdrawing $80,000 in a day. Are retail investors still watching the news?

Predicting the market trend for the next fifteen minutes sounds like science fiction. But on a prediction platform called Polymarket, a participant with the nickname Bidou28old has turned this science fiction into an ATM. This February, he made over $80,000 in net profit in less than twenty-four hours.

This is not luck. He only made forty-eight predictions in total, yet his win rate and risk-reward ratio are abnormally high. He is not guessing; he is hunting. Market analysis generally suggests that he is likely a quantitative trader or an arbitrageur with access to ultra-low latency data sources, specifically targeting tiny delays in platform pricing for a low-dimensional attack.

Looking at his trading record, those seven losses are equally shocking, totaling over $10,000. To the average person, these are failures, but insiders see the mathematics. He usually buys at prices of 3 cents, 5 cents, or 8 cents. In prediction markets, this indicates the market consensus believes the event has only a 3% to 8% chance of occurring.

For example, during a sharp drop in Bitcoin ($BTC), he bought “rebound within five minutes.” At a cost of 3 cents, if he hits, the return is 33 times. This means that even if he fails thirty times in a row, just one success recovers the losses; two successes yield pure profit. This is a typical high-odds, low-probability strategy, using manageable small losses to chase asymmetric huge returns.

But this is only one side of the story. Reviewing his profitable trades reveals a completely different pattern: extremely large single bets, usually between $7,000 and $19,000. Yet, each profit is unusually stable, concentrated in a narrow range of $4,800 to $6,400.

This exposes a strict position management model. He is not aiming for doubling; he is seeking certainty. When the market shows clear signals he recognizes, and the trend has already formed, he invests heavily, quickly capturing 30% to 50% of the move before exiting.

If the above operations are strategy-based, then the following three consecutive trades demonstrate textbook-level high-frequency position switching. Within just thirty minutes, he placed three bets on different 15-minute intervals: 9:00–9:05 PM, profit of $6,028; 9:10–9:15 PM, profit of $6,350; 9:15–9:30 PM, profit of $5,717. Totaling over $18,000.

This level of activity completely rules out decisions based on news or macro events. He is watching second-level candlestick charts or order flow data. His trading activity is highly concentrated between 7:30 PM and 11:00 PM Eastern Time, corresponding to 8:30 AM to 12:00 PM Beijing Time.

This points to two possibilities: either North American traders are continuing to hunt crypto market volatility late at night after US stock market close; or professional traders in the Asia-Pacific region are doing this as a full-time job. His extreme calmness, high-frequency, and large bets lean more toward the latter.

In terms of assets, he favors Bitcoin ($BTC) most, followed by major assets like $ETH. The reason is that these assets are highly volatile and less susceptible to manipulation by single forces, making them suitable for large short-term trades. He allows himself small losses on low-probability probes but dares to bet big when high-probability opportunities arise.

Perhaps this is the fundamental difference between top players and ordinary speculators: they don’t predict the wind’s direction; they build windmills and wait for the wind to come.

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